Tunisia: Saied Expected to Win Reelection

Facts

• Tunisian Pres. Kais Saied is reportedly expected to win reelection with 89.2% of the vote, with the Independent High Authority for Elections of Tunisia reporting there was a 27.7% voter turnout. Tunisia has a population of about 12M, including roughly 9.7M eligible voters.^[1][2]
• The voter turnout was low compared to the 45% participation seen in Saied's first election in 2019, the lowest recorded since the 2011 ousting of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. This year, it's reported that 58% of voters were men and 65% were aged 36-60.^[2]
• Saied, who won 73% of the vote in the previous 2019 election, faced little opposition this time around, including Ayachi Zammel — who, despite being in prison, is projected to win 6.9% — and Zouhair Maghzaoui, who's expected to take 3.9%.^[3]
• Critics accuse Saied of having become authoritarian since 2021, including firing three prime ministers. Alongside opposition candidate Zammel, who's serving a 14-year prison sentence, the leader of both the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha Party and the Free Destourian Party are also in jail.^[4][2]
• Despite the critics, who also point out that a total of 14 candidates have been barred from the ballot, the president claims he's protecting the country against 'foreign' actors who he alleges are 'infiltrating many public services' and 'disrupting' his policy agenda.^[3]
• This comes as Tunisia faces a regionally high 16% unemployment rate. Saied's negotiations over a $1.9B International Monetary Fund loan have also stalled since 2022, partly due to his rejection of the IMF's call to reduce public sector pay and lift state subsidies on energy and flour.^[5]

Sources: ^[1]Al Jazeera, ^[2]France 24, ^[3]The Daily Record, ^[4]The Africareport and ^[5]CNN.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by New York Times. With every meaningful opposition candidate either in jail or on house arrest, as well as every judge stacked in his favor, Pres. Saied appears to have solidified his place as Tunisia's dictator. It was just ten years ago that the Arab Spring led to optimism among Tunisians, but the last remnants of hope for democracy have been lost, resulting in most of the country staying home on election day.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Arabweekly. Despite critiques surrounding low voter turnout, this year's 28% participation is much higher than the 11% seen during the last legislative elections. It's also important to note that Saied still enjoys strong support from a significant portion of the population, particularly those who regard him as an enemy of the old guard and foreign influence.