Tunisia: Potential Presidential Candidates Jailed, Banned From Upcoming Election

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Facts

  • This comes as potential presidential candidate Lotfi Mraihi was also sentenced to eight months in prison and barred from running for office last month on a vote-buying charge.[1]
  • Later on Monday, Abir Moussi, another prominent opposition figure who filed to run for the country's top office ahead of the Tuesday deadline, was sentenced to two years behind bars on a charge of insulting the election commission.[2][1][3]
  • Tunisia's Independent High Election Commission is expected to publish a complete list of candidates by Saturday, with incumbent Kais Saied — in power since 2019 — confirmed to run for reelection as he filed his papers on Monday.[4][1]
  • According to the National Union of Tunisian Journalists, over 60 critics of Saied have been prosecuted under the so-called anti-fake news Decree 54, which was enacted in 2022, over the past year and a half.[3]
  • Saied has denied that his government has placed restrictions on prospective rivals, deeming such allegations 'delusional' and stating that 'the law applies to everyone equally.'[5][6]

Sources: [1]Reuters, [2]Dw.Com, [3]France 24, [4]Africanews, [5]Middle East Eye and [6]Trtafrika.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by The National Interest. While Tunisia is still far from a democracy, the current geopolitical landscape offers opportunities for Pres. Saied to gradually grow closer to the free world. Bright spots include the country's recent migrant deal with Italy and military training agreement with the US. As Russia and China seek more influence over Africa, Saied is an important ally worth keeping in the long term. If Saied continues to attack human rights, however, the West may have to shift gears.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Arabbarometer. Tunisia is too complex for outsiders to understand. Polls from earlier this year suggest that while 55% of Tunisians reject authoritarianism, 51% also reject the idea of a pluralistic parliamentary system, with a staggering 70% showing support for the president. The country is also divided among Muslim and secular groups, both of whom appear to reject the idea of Sharia law. Tunisians should certainly vote to figure out what system they want, but it's up to them and no one else.

Predictions