Trump on Russia-Ukraine War: 'It's Gotta Stop'

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Facts

  • Addressing the nearly three-year-old Russia-Ukraine war in his first major speech since winning the election on Nov. 5, US Pres.-elect Donald Trump told an audience in Palm Beach, Florida, that 'It's gotta stop.'[1]
  • The black-tie gala at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday evening, held alongside the America First Policy Institute, included lighter moments — including a quip about the recurring presence of Elon Musk. 'You know, he likes this place. I can't get him out of here,' Trump said.[2]
  • Trump also addressed the reality that Republicans swept the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. 'In my first term, they said 'he won the election,' but they always followed by 'he didn’t win the popular vote,'' Trump said. 'Nobody can say that anymore about us.'[3]
  • However, the president-elect turned to real-world problems as well. 'We're going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It's gotta stop. Russia and Ukraine's gotta stop.' Lamenting those killed in the conflict, Trump said: 'Whether they’re soldiers or they're people sitting in towns, we’re going to work it.'[1]
  • Trump's remarks follow a Washington Post report earlier in the week that Ukraine's European allies have quietly been discussing the once taboo subject of negotiations with Russia, including the possibility that Ukraine may have to accept territorial losses in exchange for future security — though any such deal is far from being agreed.[4]
  • On the ground, according to Thursday's analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces made confirmed advances into the Kharkiv city of Kupiansk. Earlier in the day, Ukraine's armed forces denied Russian advances into the city.[5][6]
  • Elsewhere, in Russia's Kursk region, following reports that the country had amassed some 50K troops, including at least 10K North Korean soldiers, for an offensive in the region, ISW reported that over the past day, Russian forces advanced to the north and west of Ukraine's main salient of attack.[5][7]

Sources: [1]CNN (a), [2]Independent, [3]CNN (b), [4]Verity (a), [5]Understandingwar, [6]Ukrainska Pravda and [7]Verity (b).

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by POLITICO. Despite all the hyperbole about how bad Trump would be for Ukraine, if he does somehow manage to pull off a peace deal — which he'll not get the credit for — he will have settled a draining, nearly three-year conflict that has no shortages in the amount of soldiers and civilians killed on both sides. It may not be the best deal for Ukraine, but it's the reality it has to accept after being lied to by Democrats with slogans like 'as long as it takes.'
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Rolling Stone. In the election campaign, Trump constantly bragged that he would resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the first day of his presidency. When he assumes power on Jan. 20, while he's packing his prospective cabinet with MAGA loyalists and surrounding himself with radicals who parrot Russian talking points, he'll support a bad deal for Ukraine, one that includes Ukraine ceding its territory and rewarding Putin's aggression.

Predictions