Trump Narrows Harris' Lead in New Poll, Surges Ahead on Betting Markets

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Facts

  • According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll released on Monday, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris saw her popular vote lead over former Pres. Donald Trump narrow following the vice presidential debate last week.[1][2][3]
  • Among registered voters her advantage fell from 48% to 46% in a two-way race, and from 46% to 45% when other candidates are included.[4][5]
  • Among likely voters, Harris has a two-point lead over Trump in a two-way race (48% to 46%) and no lead in a multi-party race (47% to 47%). Last month, she was leading by 50% to 46% and 49% to 45%, respectively.[4][5]
  • Meanwhile, Trump pulled ahead in betting markets for the first time in a month on Sunday, according to the RealClearPolitics betting average. As of Monday, his advantage was at 51.1% to 47.6%.[6][7]
  • This comes as his odds moved swiftly on blockchain-based Polymarket to the highest level since early August, priced at 54% as of 6 p.m. Other platforms such as PredictIt and Kalshi still favored Harris over Trump, at about 51% to 49%.[8][9]
  • On Monday evening, Nate Silver — who serves as an advisor at Polymarket — claimed that the shift on the platform was likely due to non-rational factors. According to his own election model, Harris has a 54.7% chance of winning.[8][10]

Sources: [1]The Hill, [2]Yahoo News, [3]New York Post, [4]YouGov (a), [5]YouGov (b), [6]Daily Mail, [7]RealClear Polling, [8]Forbes, [9]Polymarket and [10]Silver Bulletin.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by New York Times and Vox. It's hard to posit that Trump has narrowed the gap with Harris when most polls are weighting on recalled vote, a controversial and less accurate method that tends to help whoever lost the previous election. Traditional polls still tell a completely different story, and betting markets are no reliable indicator at all.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by The New York Sun and FOX News. With Election Day less than a month away, polls and popular online betting markets are unequivocal that Trump is gaining momentum in the race. Democrats may claim that they aren't worried, but their actions prove otherwise.

Predictions