Trump Narrows Harris' Lead in New Poll, Surges Ahead on Betting Markets
According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll released on Monday, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris saw her popular vote lead over former Pres. Donald Trump narrow following the vice presidential debate last week....
Facts
- According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll released on Monday, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris saw her popular vote lead over former Pres. Donald Trump narrow following the vice presidential debate last week.[1][2][3]
- Among registered voters her advantage fell from 48% to 46% in a two-way race, and from 46% to 45% when other candidates are included.[4][5]
- Among likely voters, Harris has a two-point lead over Trump in a two-way race (48% to 46%) and no lead in a multi-party race (47% to 47%). Last month, she was leading by 50% to 46% and 49% to 45%, respectively.[4][5]
- Meanwhile, Trump pulled ahead in betting markets for the first time in a month on Sunday, according to the RealClearPolitics betting average. As of Monday, his advantage was at 51.1% to 47.6%.[6][7]
- This comes as his odds moved swiftly on blockchain-based Polymarket to the highest level since early August, priced at 54% as of 6 p.m. Other platforms such as PredictIt and Kalshi still favored Harris over Trump, at about 51% to 49%.[8][9]
- On Monday evening, Nate Silver — who serves as an advisor at Polymarket — claimed that the shift on the platform was likely due to non-rational factors. According to his own election model, Harris has a 54.7% chance of winning.[8][10]
Sources: [1]The Hill, [2]Yahoo News, [3]New York Post, [4]YouGov (a), [5]YouGov (b), [6]Daily Mail, [7]RealClear Polling, [8]Forbes, [9]Polymarket and [10]Silver Bulletin.
Narratives
- Democratic narrative, as provided by New York Times and Vox. It's hard to posit that Trump has narrowed the gap with Harris when most polls are weighting on recalled vote, a controversial and less accurate method that tends to help whoever lost the previous election. Traditional polls still tell a completely different story, and betting markets are no reliable indicator at all.
- Republican narrative, as provided by The New York Sun and FOX News. With Election Day less than a month away, polls and popular online betting markets are unequivocal that Trump is gaining momentum in the race. Democrats may claim that they aren't worried, but their actions prove otherwise.
