Trump Media Stock Suffers Post-Debate Dip

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Facts

• Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, fell more than 15% in value on Wednesday — one day after former Pres. Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, debated Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.^[1][2]
• Trump owns more than a 50% stake in the company, which has a market value of $3.7B. The stock, which has proven to be sensitive to the varying odds of Trump winning the presidency, has dipped almost 60% since Harris replaced Pres. Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee over the summer.^[3]
• Following the debate, the Election Betting Odds tracker, which combines four separate markets' odds, gave Harris a 51.8% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Polymarket, a crypto platform, has given each candidate a 49% chance after previously favoring Trump.^[2]
• Trump Media revealed in August that it lost more than $16M in the last quarter and earned less than $1M in revenue.^[4]
• With the stock worth considerably less than it was several months ago, Trump will get his first chance to sell some or all of his 115M shares when a lockup period ends on Sept. 19. The stock hit a high of $79.38 in March, but closed Tuesday's trading at $18.04.^[5]

Sources: ^[1]New York Times, ^[2]Forbes, ^[3]Reuters.com, ^[4]Washington Post and ^[5]Associated Press.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by The New Republic. You can add this drop in the stock price of Trump's company to the many barometers showing how poorly he did in the debate. From the outset, this stock has varied alongside his popularity, and clearly, his supporters weren't happy with how he fared. This is bad news politically and monetarily for Trump, who is in the midst of a number of schemes to raise money while facing down debt and legal bills.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Breitbart. If ever we needed evidence that what's good for Harris and the Democrats is bad for our nation, this proves it. After Harris allegedly won the debate, the reality of her economy-killing tax policies — raising taxes on corporate profits, unrealized capital gains, and the incomes of wealthy Americans — settled in and spooked the whole stock market. A Harris presidency will be bad news for the US economy.

Predictions