Trump Makes Gains in Election Betting Markets

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Facts

• According to election betting markets, former Pres. Donald Trump is predicted to win the US 2024 presidential election by an average margin of 53.2%-45.8% against his Democratic opponent, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.^[1]
• Part of Trump's recent rise in betting predictions, which has seen a 5% average jump for the former president in the past week and a 5% drop for Harris, comes from the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, which has Trump winning 55.8%-43.5%.^[1]
• On Thursday, other platforms such as Sky Bet, William Hill, and 888.sport gave Trump 55.6% odds of winning, alongside 57.1% odds on the platform Unibet. This is up from Trump's 52.4% odds on all four of those platforms on Oct. 2.^[2]
• On the platform BetOnline, Trump was given a -130 wager, up from his -115 on Monday, while Harris lost ground from a -105 to a +110 over that same period. A negative number shows how much someone must bet to win $100, while a positive number how much they would win on a $100 wager.^[3]
• Some people, such as Elon Musk, who led a boost in Trump's betting odds by posting to X on Sunday, claim the betting markets are the best election predictors, others — such as polling analyst Nate Silver — chalk it up to 'bored and angsty' traders who don't actually know who will win.^[1][4]

Sources: ^[1]Forbes, ^[2]Newsweek, ^[3]Las Vegas Review and ^[4]Wired.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Youtube. The betting odds absolutely do mean something, and Donald Trump is soaring ahead in these markets. The timing of this isn't random at all, as the markets began trending toward Trump in response to Harris' recent speaking tours, most notably her terrible 60 Minutes interview. Things will only get worse for Harris as more Americans hear her on the campaign trail.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by Inc and The Independent. This surge in pro-Trump betting should be taken with a grain of salt for two reasons. One is that it only recently became legal to gamble on US elections, which means people — particularly the wealthy who wish to prop up their preferred candidate's position — are betting with zeal now. This artificial bump in Trump's favor will likely cool off before Nov. 5.

Predictions