Thousands Flee to Thailand Amid Renewed Myanmar Fighting

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Facts

• Thai officials on Thursday said thousands of people have fled into Thailand's province of Tak to escape fighting between the Myanmar military and rebels that recently broke out near Karen State's bordering town of Myawaddy.¹
• Public broadcaster Thai PBS, citing an unidentified security official, reported that over 5K civilians, including 800 children, crossed the border from eastern Myanmar to seek refuge this week after ethnic Karen rebels, along with the pro-democracy People's Defense Force, attacked two Myanmar government outposts.²
• The sound of automatic gunfire and explosions was reportedly audible on the Thai side of the border, with Thai security services reporting that a mortar shell crashed into a nearby village. Refugees have been housed in 10 shelters in two different Thai districts.³
• In response to the border fighting, Thailand's air force has been monitoring the situation and has said it's prepared to respond if its airspace is violated, as Myanmar's military has been accused of targeting civilians in airstrikes and ground operations.⁴
• This latest flareup, which claimed more than 80 lives on both sides of the conflict, comes amid a civil war that has killed thousands and displaced nearly 1.4M people, leaving one-third of the country's population in need of aid, according to the UN.⁵
• Myanmar has been plagued by armed conflict since 2021, when the military ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, provoking uprisings from ethnic groups, some of which had been fighting the military for decades. The armed groups have since joined with pro-democracy groups to oust the military rule.⁶

Sources: ¹The irrawaddy, ²Abc news, ³Thaipbsworld, ⁴Reuters, ⁵BBC News and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Global times. Regional stakeholders such as ASEAN and China have sought to smooth things over to ensure peace and stability in Myanmar, but Western support for armed resistance and political extremist action have bolstered pro-National Unity Government (NUG) militants to descend the country into civil war. Myanmar is in chaos, and the NUG's calls for revolution will only make it worse.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The diplomat. The UN and ASEAN have tried and failed to change the military junta's bloodthirsty behavior that has caused thousands of deaths and atrocious crimes against humanity since its disastrous coup in February 2021. Since there will be no sustainable peace while this illegitimate, corrupt regime remains in power, it is time for the US and its allies to unequivocally support the popular resistance movement.

Predictions