Taiwan's Opposition Alliance Collapses

Facts

• Taiwan's two main opposition parties, the long-established Kuomintang (KMT) and the newer Taiwan People's Party (TPP), have failed to agree on a proposed joint presidential ticket to unseat the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in January's presidential election.¹
• On Friday — the deadline for registering for the Jan. 13 election — the KMT officially fielded Hou Yu-ih and pro-China media personality Chao Shao-kang as its candidates, while the TPP named Ko Wen-je and lawmaker Cynthia Wu for its own presidential ticket.²
• The collapse of the united opposition ticket comes after presidential hopefuls Hou and Ko, as well as billionaire Terry Gou, descended into quarreling and accusations during a gathering in the ballroom of a hotel in Taipei on Thursday evening aimed at salvaging the deal.³
• Despite announcing in late August that he would run independently, Foxconn founder Gou refrained from formally registering as a presidential candidate. It has yet to be seen which opposition presidential ticket he will endorse.⁴
• Opinion polls conducted earlier this week indicate that William Lai, the vice president and candidate for the DPP, leads the race with 31.5%. He is trailed by Hou and Ko with 30.1% and 26.7%, respectively. Yet, the DPP will likely lose its majority in parliament in concurrent assembly elections.⁵
• The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is widely considered one of the most consequential for its relations with mainland China, regional stability, and the US-China rivalry, as Beijing claims sovereignty over the island and hasn't ruled out force for reunification.⁶

Sources: ¹The New York Times, ²Al Jazeera, ³BBC News, ⁴Focus Taiwan, ⁵The Economist and ⁶Time.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by China Daily. Even in the absence of a united opposition front to overwhelmingly defeat the ruling DPP, people in Taiwan must understand that they are faced with a binary choice. When they cast their ballot in January, voters will choose between peace and war, prosperity and decline. Now, it's a crucial time to unseat those pushing for secession.
• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Taipei Times. It's crystal clear that the opposition parties will undermine Taiwanese sovereignty for their benefit if they are voted into office, as their vice presidential nominees further indicate that they would favor a shift toward Beijing. This election has become a referendum on whether Taiwan citizens want to remain free or to kowtow to Beijing.

Predictions