Taiwan: Ruling Party's Lai Wins Presidential Election

Facts

• Taiwan's Central Election Commission announced on Saturday that Vice Pres. William Lai Ching-te has won the presidential election despite Beijing, which claims the island as its own, warning Taiwanese people not to vote for him.¹
• The candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secured 40.1% of the vote, or more than 5.5M votes, to defeat second-placed Kuomintang's (KMT) Hou Yu-ih by roughly seven percentage points. Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) finished third with 26.5% of the vote.²
• This outcome marks the first time since direct presidential elections began in 1996 that Taiwan will have the same party in office for a third consecutive term, as the president-elect will succeed his boss, Pres. Tsai Ing-wen, who is about to complete her two four-year terms.³
• Meanwhile, no party secured a majority in the 113-member Legislative Yuan, with the nationalist KMT taking 52 seats to become the largest party in parliament. Lai's DPP won 51 seats, 10 fewer than they had in the previous legislature, while the TPP won eight seats.⁴
• This three-way split in the legislative may compel Lai to form a non-partisan Cabinet and incorporate policy platforms of his opponents to reach across the aisle to pass legislation. It's unclear whether the opposition would accept such an unprecedented framework.⁵
• Lai will take office on May 20 amid growing concerns over an escalation of tensions between mainland China and Taiwan, as Beijing has cast the election as a choice between war and peace while calling the president-elect a warmonger.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Bloomberg, ³NHK, ⁴Taipei Times (a), ⁵Taipei Times (b) and ⁶POLITICO.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by CNN. Voters have ignored threats from Beijing, demonstrating their commitment to the island's democracy as well as to its de facto sovereignty. Hopefully, the PRC will finally realize that intimidating the Taiwanese people doesn't work and understand that only peace can promote stability across the Strait. If not, then it's better for Taiwan to have bolstered defenses and deeper ties with other democratic nations.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. Taiwan belongs to China, and no election will ever obstruct the inevitable national reunification. That's even more true now as results clearly revealed that voters gave no mandate for the DPP to represent the mainstream public opinion on the island. Beijing wants peace, but it will firmly oppose separatist activities and foreign interference.

Predictions