Taiwan President Says China Too 'Overwhelmed' to Invade

Facts

• During an interview at the New York Times DealBook Summit, Taiwanese Pres. Tsai Ing-wen said China is too 'overwhelmed' to think about invading the island, citing its 'internal economic and financial as well as political challenges' and adding that the 'international community has made it loud and clear that war is not an option.'¹
• Tsai also alleged that China is determined to meddle in the self-governing island's upcoming January election, something she claims Beijing has done since 1996 through 'the use of military stress and economic coercion, extensive cognitive warfare campaigns, [and] both tradition and social media platforms.'²
• The outgoing president, who is term-limited, noted that instead of hoping China would stop its allegedly coercive tactics, Taiwan should 'focus on strengthening the resilience of our democracy.'³
• Current Vice President Lai Ching-te and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's former envoy to the US, are leading the presidential race. In response to Tsai's comments, China's defense ministry said the nation would ' take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.'¹
• Tsai was also asked whether Taiwan's semiconductor industry would be impacted by the shift of some manufacturing to the US, to which she said she's 'pretty confident that the capacity we have now, and the importance of our industry, cannot be replaced anywhere else.'²
• Tsai's comments came as China's Taiwan Affairs Office said: 'Taiwan independence means war. The DPP pushing this dangerous independence double act will only poison the interests and well-being of compatriots on the island.'⁴

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²The Guardian, ³South China Morning Post and ⁴NBC.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Taipei Times. Pres. Tsai's comments come not from arrogance but confidence in the nation's institutions, economic strength, and partnerships with powerful allies. While China makes verbal threats, Taipei is manufacturing world-leading computer chips and building military and economic cooperation with countries across the world — not to mention its growing domestic public support for democracy and deterring Beijing.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. As Taiwan's ruling party pushes the island into the arms of Washington, Beijing feels sorry for the Taiwanese people, whose tax dollars are being used to buy US weapons and thus instigate a war. US policy toward Taipei isn't one of compassion but rather of using the island as a piggy bank for its military machine. This dangerous policy will only worsen if the ruling DPP party wins again in 2024.

Predictions