Taiwan Elections: Frontrunner Vows to Maintain Status Quo, Engage With China

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Facts

  • Taiwan's leading presidential hopeful, Vice Pres. William Lai, told foreign reporters on Tuesday that his potential administration would continue to preserve the island's de facto independence by any means necessary, however, he would be open to engaging with Beijing 'under the principles of equality and dignity.'1
  • The candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) also delivered his strongest remarks to date, claiming that Beijing has employed propaganda, military intimidation, cognitive warfare, and fake news to interfere in Taiwan's elections and secure an alleged China-friendly puppet government — accusations Beijing has dismissed.2
  • Hours later, Taiwan issued an emergency alert to inform its citizens that a Chinese satellite was flying over its southern airspace after China successfully launched its Einstein Probe satellite, which will reportedly collect astronomical data.3
  • As the English version of the message inaccurately warned of a 'missile flyover' and satellite launches are said to never have triggered an islandwide alert, opposition parties were quick to denounce the government and demand explanations.4
  • This comes as voters will choose between Lai, Kuomintang's (KMT) Hou Yu-ih, and Taiwan People's Party's (TPP) Ko Wen-je on Saturday to replace Tsai Ing-wen, who has completed her maximum two terms in office, as the leader of the self-ruling, Beijing-claimed island.5
  • Though the latest polls consistently show Lai ahead in the presidential race, many analysts expect his party to lose the majority in the Legislative Yuan — a scenario that would curb his ability to run the country, including passing new laws and budgets.6

Sources: 1Associated Press, 2Financial Times, 3CNA, 4Focus Taiwan, 5NBC and 6The Japan Times.

Narratives

  • Pro-China narrative, as provided by Chinadaily.com.cn. Lai shouldn't expect to achieve different results if he plans to continue his party's policy to militarize Taiwan, seek secession, and resist reunification, particularly as that policy has escalated cross-Strait tensions in the first place. As long as US-backed pro-independence forces remain in control of the island, war will always be a looming threat.
  • Anti-China narrative, as provided by Voice of America. It's crystal clear that Beijing has aggravated cross-Strait tensions, including carrying out gray zone operations, in the hope that Taiwanese citizens will be intimidated into supporting the China-friendly KMT. Hopefully, the nation will not cave into this obnoxious strategy that has already failed several other times.

Predictions