Syrian, Russian Jets Intensify Strikes Against Insurgent-Held Positions

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Facts

  • Fighter jets from Syria and Russia intensified their attacks on insurgent-held areas of Syria's northwest after the city of Aleppo fell to anti-government militants in a surprise offensive over the weekend.[1]
  • The fall of Aleppo, including its airport, came after a coalition of insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — a former affiliate of Al-Qaeda and widely considered a terror organization — launched its multi-pronged assault from its stronghold in the Idlib province on Wednesday — since spreading to the neighboring provinces of Aleppo and Hama.[2][3]
  • Meanwhile, Turkish-backed militants from the Free Syrian Army, as part of the anti-government coalition, attacked and captured positions held by the Syrian Democratic Forces — another militant group largely made up of Kurdish fighters that previously received US backing.[1]
  • While the Syrian civil war, which started in 2011, has never formally ended, fighting had largely drawn to a close after Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin and Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed to a cease-fire between the different factions in Syria's Idlib province in 2020.[3]
  • Following the recent attacks, Syrian Pres. Bashar al-Assad vowed to 'eliminate' the threat. According to reports, following Syrian and Russian airstrikes on insurgent strongholds on Sunday, Syrian troops began pushing insurgents back in Hama.[4][5]
  • According to the Syrian Civil Defense, a rescue group that operates out of opposition-controlled areas, at least 25 people were killed in Syrian and Russian attacks.[5]

Sources: [1]CNN, [2]Associated Press (a), [3]Guardian, [4]Alarabiya and [5]Associated Press (b).

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. While the West is concerned about the possible resurgence of jihadist terror groups in Syria, it will not complain too much about Assad's government — alongside its partners in Russia and Hezbollah — being put under pressure.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Thecradle.Co. The terror groups waging this campaign have a long history of conspiring with Western governments in an effort to overthrow Assad. However, Assad will undoubtedly repel these attacks as he had done previously.

Predictions