Syria: Russian Jets Strike Rebel-Seized Aleppo

Facts

• Russian warplanes reportedly conducted airstrikes on Aleppo for the first time since 2016 on Saturday, resulting in at least 16 civilian casualties and 20 injuries.^[1][2]
• According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), 20 rebels have also been killed in the strikes after Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied groups claimed to have seized Aleppo International Airport and the administrative borders of Idlib Governorate.^[3]
• Syria's military acknowledged on Saturday that rebels had taken over 'large parts' of Aleppo, adding it had made a 'temporary troop withdrawal' to prepare for a counterattack. Syria's defense ministry also reported dozens of casualties among government forces.^[4][5]
• The SOHR claims rebels had taken control of dozens of nearby towns and villages. Meanwhile, the rebels declared a 24-hour curfew to begin at 5 pm local time Saturday to ensure 'the safety of the residents of the city and to secure private and public property from tampering or harm.'^[6][5]
• This comes after Syrian rebels launched an offensive in north-western Aleppo on Wednesday and reportedly 'cut off the Damascus-Aleppo international M5 highway' and seized control of 'the junction between the M4 and M5 highways.'^[7][8]
• In the past four days, the conflict has reportedly resulted in 327 deaths, including 183 rebel fighters, 100 government forces, and 44 civilians. The offensive coincided with a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.^[9][10]

Sources: ^[1]France 24 (a), ^[2]EFE Noticias, ^[3]Middle East Eye, ^[4]Dw.Com, ^[5]CNN, ^[6]Lemonde, ^[7]France 24 (b), ^[8]Al Jazeera, ^[9]Associated Press and ^[10]RFI.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Al Jazeera and Enab Baladi. The offensive represents a legitimate resistance against oppressive government forces' attacks on civilian areas. The rebels have successfully liberated multiple villages and captured significant military assets, demonstrating the effectiveness of their coordinated response to an oppressive regime. It's time to liberate Aleppo, kick out the Iranian and Hezbollah militias, and lift the oppression against the native Syrians.
• Narrative B, as provided by New York Times. The offensive constitutes a terrorist operation targeting legitimate government institutions, while foreign-backed militant groups exploit regional instabilities to destabilize Syria's sovereignty. It represents a clear violation of the de-escalation agreement and threatens regional stability and security. Syrian armed forces are working diligently with allied forces to restore control and protect civilian areas.

Predictions