Syrian Rebels Launch First Offensive in Years West of Aleppo

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Facts

  • Syrian rebel factions led by the armed group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) reportedly captured strategic positions in Qubtan al-Jabal and Sheikh Aqil as well as a Syrian army base in the western Aleppo countryside on Wednesday as part of a large-scale offensive.[1][2][3]
  • The offensive involved intense exchanges of artillery and rocket fire between government forces and rebel groups operating under the al-Fatah al-Mubin operations room, with rebels reportedly seizing two tanks from the Syrian army.[2]
  • According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Russian warplane conducted retaliatory airstrikes using vacuum missiles as Syrian government forces shelled rebel positions in areas around Atarib and Darat Izza.[4]
  • On Tuesday, the western countryside of Aleppo experienced significant civilian displacement from Atarib and nearby villages due to HTS's military buildup along the front lines.[1]
  • Educational and cultural activities were suspended in northwestern Syria, with the rebel-affiliated Ministry of Education halting classes in schools and universities due to increased shelling.[5]
  • The frontlines in northwestern Syria had experienced a decline in violence between 2020 and 2022 following a truce between Russia and Turkey. HTS, the contemporary iteration of the al-Qaeda-aligned Nusra Front, controls most of Syria's Idlib region and is backed by Turkey, while Russia supports the Syrian government.[6]

Sources: [1]Mehr News Agency, [2]The Media Line, [3]Qalaat Al Mudiq on X, [4]XINHUA, [5]Enab Baladi and [6]ACLED.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Enab Baladi and The Media Line. This military action represents a necessary response to the regime's continuous shelling of northern Syria and aims to facilitate the return of the displaced to their villages. The offensive has broken a period of stagnation in the conflict and demonstrates the opposition's capability to challenge Assad's control.
  • Narrative B, as provided by XINHUA. The rebel offensive, led by a designated terrorist organization, threatens the stability achieved in the region in recent years. This attack violates the 2020 de-escalation agreement between Russia and Turkey, thus necessitating a strong military response to protect civilian areas and government positions.

Predictions