Survey: US No Longer 'Most Influential' Global Power in Africa

Facts

• A new Gallup poll asked people in 36 African countries about China, Germany, Russia, and the US and found that the latter has lost its place as the most influential global power in the region.¹
• The US was the only global superpower whose median approval ratings fell (from 59% in 2022 to 56% in 2023), and the image of its leadership in Africa now trails that of China by two points.²
• While approval ratings for American leadership increased between 10 to 14 points across seven countries, they plunged acutely in Uganda, Gambia, and Kenya and remained low in Libya and Somalia.³
• Meanwhile, China, the biggest single trading partner for Africa, recorded its highest approval rating in the continent in a decade, from 52% in 2022 to 58% in 2023, with double-digit increases mostly in West Africa.⁴
• Germany has seen a three-point increase to 54%, while Russia comes fourth with 42% following an eight-point improvement, but is the most approved power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad.⁵
• Recently, Washington said that American troops would withdraw from Niger after their military agreement was canceled and, at least temporarily, from Chad as the country holds presidential elections on May 6.⁶

Sources: ¹The Hill, ²Newsmax, ³Gallup.com, ⁴Business Insider, ⁵Al Mayadeen English and ⁶Washington Post.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. America has lost ground in Africa as military coup governments that recently spread across the continent are unwilling to negotiate a democratic transition of power, particularly because Russia has provided them with weapons and mercenaries. Under these circumstances, Washington has limited alternatives to hold on to its partnerships in Africa.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Global Times. This poll confirms what the world already knew: Africans are fed up with the deep-rooted Western paternalism, particularly that of the US, as their influence over and military presence in the continent have done little to tackle terrorism. If the West wants to blame anyone for losing ground in Africa, the culprit should be its own incompetence.

Predictions