Super Tuesday: Biden, Trump Solidify Path to November

Facts

• Pres. Joe Biden and Donald Trump gained momentum in their respective Democratic and Republican primaries across 16 states and one US Territory on 'Super Tuesday,' further cementing the likelihood of a 2020 rematch in November¹
• On the biggest day of the nomination races, GOP contender Nikki Haley scored a lone victory in the Vermont primary, while entrepreneur Jason Palmer beat Biden in American Samoa. In a major announcement, Haley suspended her presidential campaign following the contests.²
• Both Biden and Trump have reportedly crossed the halfway threshold to clinch their nominations — at last count, the president had 994 of 1,968 delegates, and Trump had 715 of 1,215.¹
• Biden and Trump focused their rhetoric on each other in the aftermath of the contests, with Biden warning that Trump was 'determined to destroy democracy' and Trump claiming US cities are 'being overrun by migrant crime' in his criticism of the White House.³
• Despite his strong showing, there were mixed signals for Trump, with 40% of GOP primary voters in Virginia saying Trump wouldn't be fit to be president if convicted. But 64% percent of Virginia's voters still trusted Trump over Haley on the major platform issue of immigration.⁴
• For Biden, the Gaza crisis and questions about his age were items for concern, as indicated by approximately 20% of Democratic voters selecting 'uncommitted' in Minnesota, echoing a similar result in Michigan last week.²

Sources: ¹NBC, ²CNN, ³The Guardian and ⁴BBC News.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by Bloomberg. Super Tuesday unsurprisingly showed Pres. Joe Biden and former Pres. Donald Trump as their respective parties' favorites. Very concerning is the GOP's clear and continued deterioration into far-right extremism. However, Trump underperformed in some areas, and Biden has major strengths that will come into play when democracy is on the line in November.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by FOX News. Super Tuesday inflicted a historic knockout blow to Nikki Haley from former President Trump. Haley has called on her supporters to unify behind Trump, making his momentum in a showdown with Biden even stronger. Voters are clearly concerned over crime and immigration — they spoke loudly on Super Tuesday and Biden should be concerned about his weak position as election season comes into focus.

Predictions