Sunak and Starmer Kick Off Campaigns Ahead of July 4 Election

Facts

• UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour Party leader Keir Starmer started campaigning on Thursday for Britain’s upcoming election, as Sunak’s Conservatives fight an uphill battle to remain in power.¹
• Sunak surprised many Brits on Wednesday by calling for a general election on July 4, significantly earlier than most had expected. Recent poor polling performance by the Tories had led many to believe Sunak would call for an election closer to the January deadline.²
• Parliament will be officially suspended on Friday, allowing the six-week campaign period to begin. Sunak has already said he will bring “bold action” amid uncertain times, and could be trying to capitalize on recent reports that UK inflation has slowed to 2.3%.³
• Sunak acknowledged that some pending legislation will not become law ahead of the election, and opponents say he has admitted failure on his migration plan by calling a snap election. Sunak’s ban on smoking for those born after 2008 could also be put on hold.⁴
• Sunak is making visits across the UK in the first 48 hours of his campaign. Meanwhile, Starmer made a stop in southeast England, telling voters that they have “the power” to “end the chaos” that has come from 14 years of Conservative government.⁴
• Most polls show Labour with a commanding 20-point lead over the Conservatives, who may benefit from Nigel Farage's announcement that he will not stand for the Reform Party in the upcoming vote.⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²CNBC, ³Associated Press, ⁴ABC News and ⁵POLITICO.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by NBC. Every shred of evidence over the last few years points to a crushing defeat for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. Sunak’s last Hail Mary is calling for a snap election far sooner than expected, but it would take a miracle to close a 20-point polling gap that has persisted for months. The Tories have held power since 2010, and the UK has deteriorated in every way under their stewardship. July 4 will officially end 14 years of failed policy.
• Right narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). While many dominos still need to fall for a Tory upset, Rishi Sunak’s gamble seems to be paying off. By calling a quick election, Sunak has prevented Nigel Farage from standing for the Reform Party, which has significantly eaten into Conservative support. The Tories can now focus on trying to bring all conservative and moderate Brits back into their coalition and show them how recent indicators reveal that the UK is on the upswing.

Predictions