Sudan to Send Delegation to Cairo for Peace Talks

Facts

• Sudan has announced that it will send negotiators to Cairo to meet US and Egyptian officials, which could lead to its attending peace talks in Geneva alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rebel group.^[1]
• The Transitional Sovereign Council, currently ruling Sudan, has said that their participation in the peace talks is contingent on the RSF upholding the 'Jeddah Agreement,' a cease-fire deal that stipulated the RSF leave civilian areas.^[2][3][4]
• This follows a statement from Sudan over the weekend which claimed the US had agreed to meet with the Council to discuss implementing the Jeddah Agreement. Last week, Sudan and the US held consultations in Jeddah but failed to reach a consensus on participation in the Geneva talks.^[3]
• Also at stake is the UAE's alleged involvement in the conflict, as Sudan has accused it of supporting the RSF. The UAE has denied the charge, though the UN has described it as credible.^[5]
• On Thursday, Sudan allowed the use of an RSF-controlled route for aid deliveries, taking a key topic off the agenda of the talks. A US official said the move was spurred by an agreement reached by army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.^[5]
• Talks in Geneva kicked off on Wednesday without the presence of government negotiators, with al-Burhan insisting that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) were only interested in enforcement of the Jeddah terms.^[4][5]

Sources: ^[1]Voice of America, ^[2]Middleeastmonitor, ^[3]Sudan Tribune, ^[4]The National and ^[5]Reuters.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Foreign Policy. These are promising signs that one of the world's costliest ongoing conflicts is inching towards a peaceful resolution. The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is reaching staggering proportions, and the RSF and SAF must come to the table under an international framework. The US and many other nations are coming together to force the two sides to the table, but all must unite to sustain this pressure. Months of secret negotiations are finally coming to fruition.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Capital News. There's a good reason the talks over Sudan have failed in spite of the dire situation faced by the civilian population. Those involved in the peace process, from the Saudis to the Emiratis to the Americans, have a vested interest in the outcome of the conflict and aren't coming to the table with the purest of intentions. There will be no hope for the Geneva talks unless the UN gets those with a geopolitical interest in the conflict to abstain from these mediations.

Predictions