Sudan: Paramilitary Chief to Attend US-Mediated Cease-Fire Talks

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Facts

• The leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, announced on Wednesday that he will attend the US-mediated cease-fire talks in Switzerland on Aug. 14.¹
• Dagalo reportedly 'welcomed' the invitation extended by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and confirmed the RSF's 'participation in the upcoming ceasefire talks' with the Sudanese military under the command of army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.²
• On Tuesday, Blinken announced that the Sudanese army and the RSF had been invited to negotiations to end the Sudan war and that Washington 'remains committed to working with partners to end this devastating war.'³
• The US State Department declared that there is 'no military solution to the conflict' and that the negotiations are intended to build on failed talks between the warring parties in Saudi Arabia in late 2023.⁴
• According to Blinken, Saudi Arabia will co-host the new round of talks with observers from the UAE, Egypt, the African Union, and the UN. The Sudanese army hasn't announced whether it will participate in the negotiations.⁵
• Meanwhile, a new report from Amnesty International found that weapons and ammunition from countries including China, Russia, Turkey, and the UAE are being imported in large quantities into Sudan and, in some cases, diverted into Darfur.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Arab News, ³The New Arab, ⁴Africanews, ⁵Voice of America and ⁶Amnesty International.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Sudan Tribune. The development that Dagalo accepted the invitation to fresh peace to create a space for a political process is a new glimmer of hope for the forgotten war in Sudan. It's particularly encouraging that the UN Security Council backs the US-mediated talks in a rare and significant agreement among its members. Moreover, the rapid geopolitical developments in the Red Sea and the wider region are generating additional momentum. Now, it's up to the regular Sudanese army to prove its will for peace.
• Narrative B, as provided by Eurasiareview. The latest Saudi-backed US initiative only sounds encouraging on the surface. While the Saudis are now appearing to be a force for peace, Riyadh is fueling the conflict by supplying weapons, just like its rival, the UAE. Though they're backing the warring parties, both US allies are primarily concerned with controlling Sudan's resources, energy, and logistical gateways. The geopolitical dimension and interests of the various external players make it unlikely that the new talks will achieve peace.

Predictions