Sudan: Fighting Continues Despite Eid Three-Day Truce

Facts

• Bombing, shelling, and gunfire continued in the streets of the Sudanese capital Khartoum on Friday despite a three-day cease-fire having reportedly been agreed between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr.¹
• The armistice, first announced by the RSF, was supposed to come into effect at 6 a.m., opening humanitarian corridors to evacuate citizens and allowing them to reunite with their families.²
• The World Health Organization updated the death toll in the country on Friday to 413 people, including nine children, with some 3.5K injured. Meanwhile, the US State Dept. confirmed that one US citizen had been killed amid the violence.³
• These developments come a day after a spokesman for the US Dept. of Defense stated that the US is carrying out "prudent planning" for several contingency operations, including a possible evacuation of American personnel from the US Embassy in Sudan.⁴
• Military evacuation seems to be the only way to safely escape the country, as Khartoum's international airport has been left inoperable by fierce fighting between the warring sides. Clashes broke out on Saturday, forcing the roughly 70 Embassy staffers to begin sheltering in place.⁵
• The deadly week-long fighting began as two rival generals — the head of Sudan's army Abdel-Fattah al Burhan [al-Burhan] and the RSF's leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo — have been competing for power since they joined forces to bring about the 2021 military coup.⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²Al Jazeera, ³CNN, ⁴Wall Street Journal, ⁵FOX News, and ⁶Business Insider.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Foreign Policy. While it's undeniable that al-Burhan and Dagalo are primarily responsible for the current fighting, the US may also be blamed for this outbreak of violence as it compelled civilian protesters in 2019 to form a flawed transitional government with the military, retreating from a long-awaited, decisive democratic push, and trusted military leaders once again following the 2021 coup. Even more harmful was the US-backed Sudanese security sector reform, which created competition between both generals as neither of them wanted to give up power.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Responsible Statecraft. Despite coming as no surprise to close observers, tensions between forces loyal to al-Burhan and Dagalo, former allies now turned foes as they fight to rule the country, have slowly simmered under the oversight of several diplomatic actors that failed to coordinate divergent actors. While the US could indeed have been more diplomatically engaged in Sudan, its main mistake was to lose leverage by believing that regional powers would promote democracy in the country without Washington exerting any pressure.