Sudan: Clashes Erupt on Eve of Eid al-Adha Despite Cease-Fire

Facts

• Clashes around military bases between Sudan's army (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly rocked Khartoum on Tuesday, the eve of the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday.¹
• This comes even though the RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo announced on Monday that there would be a two-day “unilateral” ceasefire in Sudan, excluding "self-defense situations" for the celebration that marks the culmination of the annual Hajj in Saudi Arabia.²
• The SAF on Monday confirmed that Dagalo's forces captured the main base of a well-equipped police brigade in southern Khartoum after three days of intense fighting, in which at least 15 civilians had been killed and more than 80 wounded, according to local activists.³
• The UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan also reported that fighting had broken out on Sunday between the SAF and rebel group the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/North (SPLM-N) in the Kurmuk locality of the Blue Nile Region, leading to hundreds of civilians fleeing to neighboring Ethiopia.⁴
• The current conflict in Sudan started in mid-April between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's SAF and the RSF. Heavy fighting erupted in Khartoum, killing hundreds of civilians. As neither side has gained the upper hand to date, fighting has spread to other regions, such as Darfur.⁵
• According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, more than 2K people have been killed since the start of the fighting, with the US State Dept. saying that up to 1.1K people have been killed in the West Darfur state capital alone. More than 2.5M have been displaced, of which around 600K have sought refuge in neighboring countries.⁶

Sources: ¹RFI, ²Al Jazeera, ³Reuters, ⁴African Business, ⁵CNN, and ⁶AL.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by AL. It's undeniable that Washington is significantly responsible for the fighting in Sudan. The US failed to rein in the country's top generals when mounting tensions between forces led by Burhan and Dagalo indicated that a prolonged conflict was likely to erupt.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Times. Since the eruption of violence in Sudan, the US has worked hard to stamp out violence, bring about a peaceful solution, and provide safe passage for humanitarian aid. The US is doing its part in enabling diplomatic resolution and committing itself to supporting refugees until a permanent agreement is reached.
• Cynical narrative, as provided by NPR Online News. Each warring side in Sudan is still battling for supremacy over the country, which indicates they're in no way serious about these ceasefires or peace talks. If the two continue to see each other as an existential threat, it will be impossible to find the middle ground necessary to stop the fighting and prevent the nation from being destroyed.

Predictions