Sudan: Army Leader Suspends Participation in Jeddah Ceasefire Talks

Facts

• Despite on Monday agreeing to extend a ceasefire by another five days, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) suspended its participation in continued ceasefire talks with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, saying on Wednesday that the RSF lacked commitment to the terms of the agreement and alleging it was in violation of the ceasefire.¹
• Fighting in Khartoum continued on Wednesday, with the Sudanese Doctors Trade Union saying that 19 people were killed and 106 more injured when a market south of Khartoum was shelled from the direction of an SAF base. Omdurman has also reportedly witnessed heavy artillery since Wednesday, with military sources saying that they are targeting RSF forces stationed at the national TV station.²
• Although the week-long ceasefire was extended before it was to expire on Monday, sporadic fighting nonetheless continued in the capital Khartoum and other parts of the country. Areas of the capital were also affected by widespread looting and frequent disruptions to electricity and water supplies.³
• Following weeks of mediation efforts in the Saudi capital of Jeddah, the US and Saudi Arabia on Sunday showed impatience with the continued violations of the ceasefire, and both parties called out each side over specific breaches of the truce.⁴
• The current conflict in Sudan started in mid-April between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's SAF and the RSF, commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Heavy fighting erupted in Khartoum, killing hundreds of civilians, with neither party to the conflict gaining the upper hand to date.⁴
• The fighting has so far displaced nearly 1.4M people, with more than 350K fleeing to other countries. Burhan and Dagalo, who had held top positions in Sudan's ruling council since former leader Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019, have previously indicated they are seeking victory.³

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Guardian, ³TRT World, and ⁴Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Times. Since the break out of the conflict in Sudan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has worked hard to stamp out violence, bring about a peaceful solution, and provide safe passage for humanitarian aid. The US is doing its part in enabling diplomatic resolution and committing itself to supporting refugees until a ceasefire or permanent agreement is reached.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by AL Monitor. Though the US and Saudi Arabia have brokered this ceasefire, it's undeniable that Washington has significant responsibility for the outbreak of fighting in Sudan. The US failed to rein in the country's top generals when mounting tensions between forces led by Burhan and Dagalo indicated that a prolonged conflict was likely to erupt. Facilitating a truce is the least US leaders can do for the region given this negligence.
• Cynical narrative, as provided by NPR Online News. Each warring side in Sudan is still battling for supremacy over the country, which indicates they're in no way serious about these ceasefires or peace talks. If the two continue to see each other as an existential threat, it will be impossible to find the middle ground necessary to stop the fighting and prevent the nation from being destroyed.

Predictions