Study: US Debt Would Increase Under Trump, Harris

Facts

• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released a study on Monday predicting that both former Pres. Donald Trump and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris' policy proposals would increase US national debt.^[1]
• If fully implemented, the Committee estimates Trump's campaign pledges would raise the national debt by $7.5T while Harris' would add $3.5T over a ten-year period. Currently, federal debt sits at over $35T.^[2][3]
• The assessment estimates a Trump administration would reportedly implement $2.7T in tariff revenues but over $9.2T lost in tax cuts in addition to increased spending on immigration deportation and border security. In contrast, Harris' policies would see $4.6T in tax cuts in comparison to $4T in tax increases for corporations and wealthy individuals.^[4]
• The Committee also expresses that these estimates come with 'a wide range of uncertainty.' With the full range considered, the committee projects Trump's policies could add approximately $1.5T-$15.2T to the country's debt, while Harris' plans could potentially add between about $0-$8.1T.^[5]
• A separate analysis by The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania suggests (including economic feedback effects) Harris' policies would increase debt by $2T over ten years — accounting for economic feedback — compared to an increase of $4.1T under Trump.^[6]
• Both campaigns criticized the CRFB report. A Harris official said the Vice Pres.'s policies were fully financed and would lower debt. Meanwhile, a Trump senior advisor accused the CRFB of bias because it had opposed Trump's 2017 tax cuts and supported Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.^[7][8]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]Washington Post, ^[3]New York Post, ^[4]US News & World Report, ^[5]Crfb, ^[6]Newsweek, ^[7]CBS and ^[8]Archive.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by Fortune. Multiple analyses have reached the same opinion that Harris' policy proposals will do a better job of handling America's debt than Trump's. While there's a chance that a Harris administration would prevent national debt from growing at all, Trump risks running up a $15T bill if his pro-tariff anti-tax agenda doesn't go to plan.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. Harris' policy pledges are nothing but vacuous buzzwords intended to hide her debt-inducing agenda. Democratic plans to raid the wallets of hard-working Americans will barely put a dent in the national deficit, while calls for taxing unrealized capital gains and everyday price controls are economically unviable. Harris cannot be trusted to manage the American economy.
• Narrative C, as provided by Los Angeles Times. Policy deficit estimates are extremely inaccurate, lacking any credible certainty over the future. These predictions should not be treated seriously, with the Committee's massive range of potential estimates unwieldy and practically useless.

Predictions