Study: Sudan War Death Toll Much Higher Than Records Show

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Facts

  • According to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's Sudan Research Group, over 61K people have lost their lives in the Khartoum region since the war broke out in April 2023. This is far higher than the roughly 20K deaths confirmed by the UN.[1][2]
  • According to the report, 26K deaths have been caused by the violence, though starvation, disease, and lack of medical care have emerged as the primary causes of death in Sudan. It found that the rate of deaths from violence is highest in the Kordofan and Darfur regions.[3][2]
  • According to the report, the death rate in Khartoum State was 50% higher than the national average before the fighting began. Even in peacetime, deaths in Sudan frequently go unreported due to insufficient hospitals, morgues, and burial grounds.[4]
  • According to lead author Maysson Dahab, the researchers employed the 'capture-recapture' sampling technique to detect their estimated death toll, which requires at least two independent sources.[4]
  • The three sources for this report were a social media analysis of deceased people conducted from November 2023 to June 2024; a survey distributed to community activists; and social media obituaries in Khartoum, Bahri, and Omdurman.[5]
  • According to the UN, the war has driven at least 11M people from their homes and resulted in the world's worst hunger crisis. Half of Sudan's population, about 25M people, are at risk of hunger and require aid, with widespread famine in at least one refugee camp.[6][7]

Sources: [1]BBC News, [2]LSHTM, [3]Al Jazeera, [4]Arab News, [5]Daily Sabah, [6]Reuters and [7]Democracy Now.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Operation Broken Silence. While informative reports like this are vital, the actual death toll from the Sudan conflict could be as high as 125K civilians — due to both violence and hunger. Sudan currently has the most extensive and dangerous humanitarian emergency, surpassing all other emergencies in the world today. Despite these facts, Western media and institutions refuse to give it the coverage it deserves, which is likely why few people know how awful the crisis truly is.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Situation Reports. The UN meticulously tracks both violence- and health-related deaths in Sudan to assess the conflict's severity and coordinate effective humanitarian responses. While this data helps to inform resource allocation and intervention strategies, the UN requires much more funding to address escalating needs. Millions of people will face dire consequences if the world doesn't step up and give the Sudanese what they need.

Predictions