Study: Obese Children May Have Half the Average Life Expectancy

Facts

• According to a study from the German life sciences consultancy Stradoo GmbH, children who are severely obese at the age of four have a life expectancy of 39 — about half the average life expectancy in the UK — if they don't lose weight.¹
• The body mass index (BMI) Z-score of a healthy 103 cm-tall four-year-old boy weighing 16.5 kg (36.4 lbs) will be zero, while boys of the same age and height having 19.5 kg (43 lbs) and 22.7 kg (50 lbs) weight will have a score of 2 and 3.5 respectively.¹
• The study found that severely obese young children with BMI Z-scores of 2 had an estimated life expectancy of 65 without weight loss, while children with a BMI Z-score of 2.5 had a life expectancy of 50.²
• Furthermore, the researchers claim that a severely obese four-year-old with a BMI Z-score of 3.5 was 27% more likely to develop type 2 diabetes by the age of 25 and had a 45% chance of developing the disease by 35.³
• Children with severe early-onset obesity — a BMI Z-score of 4 at age four — had a 55% chance of developing type 2 diabetes. However, the study suggests if they dropped their weight to a BMI Z-score of 2 by age six, their chances of developing the disease dropped to 29%.⁴
• According to 2022 data, 159M children and about 880M adults globally are living with obesity.⁵

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Sky News, ³The Telegraph, ⁴RTE.ie and ⁵BBC News.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by BBC News. While childhood obesity is unquestionably on the rise and comes with severe risks, the BMI Z-score appears to be outdated as it doesn't correctly measure excess fat. To prevent healthy children from being told they are unhealthy, it would be better to use a more appropriate waist-to-height ratio, which will more accurately tell someone if their body has put on too many pounds.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Conversation. BMI Z-scores correlate strongly with fat measurements, so there's no need to question the rise in childhood obesity. The problem is also made clear when obese children develop cardiovascular disease, liver disease, and diabetes while their healthy peers do not. Children are hurting, and these data need to be taken seriously and followed up with public health measures that are serious and effective.

Predictions