Study: Middle East Faces Extreme Heat Risk

Facts

• A new study published in Nature Sustainability on Monday has warned that countries across the Middle East and Gulf Region are highly vulnerable to climate change-related extreme heat, with poorer populations particularly at risk in the coming decades.¹
• The study examined the potential consequences if countries were exposed to "unprecedented heat" — a mean annual temperature of 29°C (84.2°F) or higher. Exposure to extreme heat in two hypothetical scenarios was evaluated; a global temperature rise of 1.5°C (2.7°F) by 2070 and of 2.7°C (4.9°F) by the same year.²
• If the current pace of global warming continues unchecked, the study suggests that billions of people will be pushed outside the "climate niche" — temperatures in which humans can flourish — exposing them instead to dangerously hot weather.³
• Factoring in population growth and expected global warming, the study predicts that by 2030 nearly 2B people could be living outside of the climate niche, with the number set to rise to 3.7B by 2090.⁴
• If global temperatures rose by 2.7°C, the researchers say that Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain would have their entire land and populations exposed to life-threatening extreme heat. Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen would also be at extreme risk, with significant but lesser impact expected on Iran and Israel.⁵
• The study also warned that worst-case scenarios of 3.6°C or even 4.4°C of global warming could push half the world's population outside the climate niche. The report stated that, "for every 0.1°C of warming above present levels, about 140M more people will be exposed to dangerous heat."⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Nature (a), ³CNN, ⁴Nature (b), ⁵AL, and ⁶Earth.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Futurism. Climate change, even warming lesser than the seemingly limited 1.5°C rise in global temperatures, would pose a catastrophic threat to human and animal species, as it would cause increased famines and wide-scale wildlife and ecosystem destruction. As we are likely to meet that threshold sooner than predicted, governments must prioritize the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions over the ongoing investment in fossil fuels for the sake of protecting our future.
• Narrative B, as provided by Study Finds. Climate change is a concern, but scientists and activists focus far too often on parroting doomsday predictions and emphasizing the worst-case scenarios of global warming. Climate alarmism is counterproductive, and overshadows the mid-range scenarios that are more likely to be caused by climate change and deserve more scientific attention.

Predictions