Study: Global Fertility Rates to Plunge by 2100

Facts

• According to a study published in The Lancet on Wednesday, 198 of 204 (97.1%) countries by 2100 will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain their respective population sizes.¹
• Researchers from the University of Washington estimate that the global fertility rate, which has fallen from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021, will drop to 1.59 by the end of this century.²
• Though the researchers predict fertility rates will be declining globally, the rate of decline will reportedly be uneven, which they claim will create a 'demographically divided world.'³
• Countries need a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to prevent their population from declining. In South Korea and Serbia, the rate is less than 1.1, while in Chad, it's 7, the highest in the world.⁴
• Only Chad, Niger, Samoa, Somalia, Tajikistan, and Tonga are expected to have fertility rates exceeding 2.1 births per woman by 2100, while the rate could decrease from around 1.5 to 1.37 in Western Europe.⁵
• Due to the 'baby boom' and 'baby bust' divide, the researchers forecast that low-income regions could find it difficult to support their growing populations, while high-income countries may struggle to maintain economic growth.⁶

Sources: ¹EL PAÍS English, ²The Telegraph, ³CNN, ⁴EurekAlert!, ⁵Newsweek and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Health Data. Nations of varying demographics and economic ranks will not be able to avoid the consequences if these trends are allowed to continue. Lower-income countries must offer better access to contraceptives and female education, and wealthier nations must prioritize policies that support a robust social security system and open immigration to maintain population size and economic growth. Otherwise, the world will be in deep trouble.
• Narrative B, as provided by Euronews. Lower fertility rates don't pose an existential threat to the planet because a shrinking population could alleviate strain on global resources and reduce carbon emissions. These studies tend to over sensationalize the socio-economic consequences of slow fertility rates, which can lead to more restrictions on women's rights to contraception and to pursue education and work over having a family. There's no fertility crisis just yet.

Predictions