Study: Earth Nearing Five Climate Tipping Points

Facts

• According to the Global Tipping Points Report, put together by more than 200 researchers worldwide, at the current level of warming, the Earth risks triggering at least five tipping points and posing exceptional threats to humanity.¹
• The five cited tipping points are: the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet; the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet; the mass die-off of warm water coral reefs; the thawing of Arctic permafrost; and the slowing of North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation. The report suggests that the die-off of coral reefs is likely at current temperatures while the other tipping points are 'possible.'²
• Published on Wednesday to coincide with the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, the study warns that triggering one tipping point 'could trigger another in a kind of dangerous domino effect' and have catastrophic impacts on humanity, such as spiking food security crises.³
• Tim Lenton, lead author of the study — based on the assessment of 26 climate tipping points — warns that the world must 'find and trigger some positive tipping points that accelerate action down an alternative pathway' as the current policies are inadequate to face the unprecedented threat.⁴
• The study comes a day after Climate Action Tracker estimated that their emissions targets for 2030 put the planet on track to heat by +2.5°C by 2100, despite promises from world governments at COP26 in Glasgow to try to limit it to +1.5°C.⁵

Sources: ¹The Guardian, ²Bloomberg, ³New Scientist, ⁴Nature and ⁵Climate Action Tracker.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Hindustan Times. The world is currently on a disastrous trajectory. Tipping-point risks threaten to trigger fundamental, abrupt, and irreversible changes to our planet as well as cause dire and horrific effects on human lives. The Global Tipping Points Report is a clear warning to world leaders that the global community must take bold, coordinated policies across multiple sectors—including the phase-out of fossil fuels and land-use emissions by 2050—to tip the odds in favor of billions of people.
• Narrative B, as provided by Physics Today. The Global Tipping Points Report has yet to clarify how close we are to crossing the tipping points and what the exact impacts would be if we did. Science can't predict everything precisely because the dynamics and outcomes of natural and social systems arise from the interplay of many factors and choices. As the worst uncertainties about climate change are outside the scope of climate models, such warnings must be taken with a grain of salt. More analysis, and less alarmism, is needed.

Predictions