Study Calls 'Infinite Monkey Theorem' Into Question

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Facts

  • A study published in the journal Franklin Open questioned the 'Infinite Monkeys Theorem,' which states that an infinite number of monkeys, given infinite time, would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare by typing randomly on a keyboard.[1][2]
  • The study's authors say that while the theorem is statistically possible, it doesn't account for finite time and resources, and thus is 'misleading.' Instead, they tested the theorem by adjusting for the timeframe when the universe will end as well as the size of the monkey population.[3]
  • Using a constant chimpanzee population of 200K — each with a 30-year lifespan and typing one letter per second — with a time limit of 10 to the 100th power years until the universe ends, the researchers found the chances of Shakespeare's works being written were effectively zero.[4][1]
  • It also calculated the chances of shorter works and phrases, including the roughly 1.8K-word book 'Curious George,' and the roughly 83K-word book 'Planet of the Apes.' The chances of both being typed by the end of the universe were also effectively zero.[2][1]
  • The phrase 'I chimp, therefore I am' was given no chance before the death of all chimps, but almost a 100% chance by the end of the universe. However, the word 'bananas' was given a 5% chance of within one chimp's lifetime and a 100% chance for both the death of all chimps and the end of the universe.[1][2]
  • Commenting on the results, study co-author Stephen Woodcock, of Australia's University of Technology Sydney, said the more than 884K words written by Shakespeare wouldn't be written even if 'every atom in the universe was a universe in itself.'[5]

Sources: [1]Sciencedirect, [2]CNN, [3]BBC News, [4]Newsweek and [5]Guardian.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by ScienceAlert. While the Infinite Monkeys Theorem is technically true and fun to think about, these researchers have shown that it's just a paradox. Infinite Monkeys is like other paradoxes, such as fitting an infinite amount of balls in a vase or an object covering infinite fractions of a distance never reaching its destination — they have no basis in the real world of finite time or resources.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Researchgate. While monkeys may not be able to re-create famous works of art, other parts of the physical world, namely computers using AI machine learning, will be able to turn randomness into coherent pieces of text even in the style of writers like Shakespeare. AI will not only be able to rewrite great literature but produce its own unique works for human consumption. Perhaps it's time to level up the original primate-cosmos paradox to account for the expanding frontiers of AI.

Predictions