Stubb Wins First Round of Finland's Presidential Election

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Facts

• Following the completion of preliminary calculations, former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb has won the first round of Finland's presidential election, receiving 27.2% of the popular vote.¹
• With a total turnout of 74.9% (~3.3M votes), Stubb received approximately 882K votes in total, followed by Pekka Haavisto (836K votes, ~26%), Jussi Halla-aho (615K votes, ~19%), and Olli Rehn (497K votes, ~15%).¹
• Commenting on the results, while Stubb stated that 'the competition will only begin now,' Haavisto, a former foreign minister of Finland, claimed that his priority was now to 'reach those whose candidate is not in the second round.'²
• The result is Finland's closest margin between two candidates since 1994. Sauli Niinistö's (NCP) Stubb and Tarja Halonen's (SDP) Haavisto, will partake in a second round of voting on Feb. 11.³
• A run-off is required in Finland's presidential elections if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. The vote comes as current President Sauli Niinistö's second six-year term is set to finish in March this year, and is ineligible for re-election.⁴
• Duties of the Finnish president include leading the country as Supreme Commander of the Defence Forces, appointing and discharging governmental ministers, and leading Finland's foreign policy.⁵

Sources: ¹Tulospalvelu, ²reuters.com, ³Helsinki Times, ⁴Euronews and ⁵Presidentti.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by Helsingin Sanomat. A second round of Voting places Stubb in the driving seat to be Finland's next president. While Stubb and Pekka Haavisto finished neck-and-neck, Finland's center-right voter bloc far supersedes the progressive and alternative options that the SDP appeals to. The cumulative total of Finland's left-wing voting base from the first round reaches only approximately 35% — simply not enough to take him over the line. In order to become president, Pekka Haavisto must convince a sizeable proportion of the right-wing population that he is the man to lead Finland forward — a task much easier said than done.
• Left narrative, as provided by Guardian. Haarvisto's candidacy has survived the threat of the populist Halla-aho's recent polling surge and remains in the fight to historically become Finland's first openly gay president. An underdog for the entirety of the campaign trail, Pekka Haavisto's entry into the run-off should be considered in itself a success — and given the importance of the role of president, there should be a sigh of relief that populism will not be allowed to direct the country's future.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Nykysuomi.com. While the Finnish people will get to decide the next president, the survival of both establishment candidates will be a bitter blow for the average citizen. The reality is that over half of Finns wanted to see neither Stubb nor Haavisto continue to bow to the EU and ignore Finland's damaging loss of self-determination. The winning candidate will be the one that listens to the outcries of the people best, and pledges once again to put Finland first.