UK: Prime Minister Starmer Denies Choice Between US and EU

Facts

• During a speech on Monday evening, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer stated that it was 'plain wrong' that the UK had to pick between closer relations with the US or the European Union (EU).^[1]
• Speaking at the Lord Mayor's Banquet in London, Starmer stated that 'the national interest demands that we work with both [the US and EU],' claiming that while its was necessary to 'rebuild [UK] ties with Europe,' relations with the US were 'the cornerstone of [UK] security and [UK] prosperity.'^[2]
• Starmer reaffirmed that there would be no return to freedom of movement, the customs union, or single market membership as part of a reset in relations with the EU, while claiming that he told Pres.-elect Donald Trump in September that the UK would 'invest more deeply than ever' in US-UK ties.^[3][4]
• In November, economic advisor to Trump, Stephen Moore, told The Times that the UK had to decide between 'the European socialist model or... the US free market.' Moore also claimed the US would be 'less interested' in a trade deal with the UK if it moved closer to the European bloc.^[5]
• During the speech, Starmer also spoke about 'set[ting] out a clear path' to increase defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), as well as placing Ukraine in the 'strongest possible position for negotiations... [to] secure a just and lasting peace.'^[2]
• Prime Minister Starmer also travelled to Brussels in October to hold discussions with EU leaders, and is set to be invited to an information EU leaders' retreat in Belgium in February.^[6][7]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]GOV.UK, ^[3]Daily Mail, ^[4]Guardian, ^[5]The Times, ^[6]Euractiv and ^[7]FT.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by POLITICO and Guardian. The UK should prioritize relations with the EU over the US, especially with Donald Trump’s reelection. His 'America First' agenda undermines global stability, imposing tariffs on British goods and reducing support for Ukraine. In contrast, the EU offers a unified economic and political bloc with shared values. It can counterbalance Trump’s isolationist policies, protecting the UK from trade wars and ensuring stability in security, climate, and global challenges. Staying close to Europe is essential for the UK's future.
• Right narrative, as provided by The Telegraph and GB News. The UK should prioritize relations with the US over the EU, especially with the opportunity for a favorable trade deal under President Trump. The EU lacks the flexibility and speed needed for post-Brexit growth, while the US offers real economic advantages. Securing tariff exemptions would boost UK exports and create a unique opportunity the EU could never provide. It’s time to embrace the US and leave the EU’s limitations behind for a stronger, more independent future.

Predictions