Sri Lanka: Pres. Dissanayake's Coalition Wins Snap Polls

Facts

• In Thursday's snap elections, Pres. Anura Kumara Dissanayake's National People's Power (NPP) coalition secured 159 seats in Sri Lanka's 225-member parliament, exceeding a two-thirds majority.^[1][2]
• Out of 225 seats, 196 were to be directly elected, while 29 were to be allocated based on the proportional vote obtained by each party. The NPP won 141 seats through direct election and 18 through the National List.^[3][4]
• According to the official electoral count released on Friday, Dissanayake's coalition secured 61.5% of the vote.^[5]
• The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party, the NPP's main rival, could secure only 28 seats or about 18% of the votes polled. The NPP won the most votes in the northern district of Jaffna, dominated by the island's minority Tamil community.^[6][7]
• Dissanayake, a former cabinet minister, won the presidential election in September, winning 42.31% of the vote in the first round and 55.89% in the second. However, his coalition held just three seats in the outgoing assembly.^[8][9]
• The election follows Sri Lanka's worst economic crisis, which led to a 2022 debt default, an IMF bailout, and the resignation of former Pres. Gotabaya Rajapaksa amid mass protests. The country's poverty rate has risen to 25.9%, with the World Bank forecasting only 2.2% economic growth in 2024.^[10]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Associated Press, ^[3]Daily Mirror, ^[4]The Indian Express, ^[5]AA, ^[6]Al Jazeera, ^[7]Independent, ^[8]NDTV, ^[9]Dhaka Tribune and ^[10]BBC News.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Frontline. This election is a critical turning point for Sri Lanka. The sweeping mandate, including surprise backing from minority groups, is an unprecedented vote for change and grants Dissanayake greater power to implement anti-poverty and anti-corruption policies. The NPP represents a clean break from corrupt traditional politics and offers real systemic change through anti-corruption measures, economic reforms, and abolishing the executive presidency — essential for Sri Lanka's recovery from its longstanding financial crisis.
• Narrative B, as provided by Mint and Reuters. Dissanayake is a self-avowed Marxist, while his coalition has few leaders with governance and policy-making experience. The rapid rise of an inexperienced NPP leadership threatens stability and economic recovery, while its Marxist-leaning policies could jeopardize the IMF agreement and international debt restructuring efforts. Sri Lanka's economic situation remains precarious — how the country progresses from this point and carries through the reforms while navigating international commitments will be a real challenge for the new government.