Spanish Election: Right-Wing Bloc Wins, Falls Short of Majority

Facts

• Spain's right-wing political bloc — comprised of the Popular Party (PP) and Vox — has become the largest in the Congress of Deputies, but failed to pass the 176-majority threshold as the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) fared better than expected in Sunday's vote.¹
• With the ballot count nearly completed, a hung parliament looms in Spain. Provisional results show the PP and Vox hold 136 and 33 seats, respectively, while the PSOE garnered 122 and another left-wing party, named Sumar, obtained 31.²
• Intra-party negotiations and meetings involving King Felipe VI of Spain will outline the path forward for the European country in the upcoming weeks, as coalition-building prospects remain uncertain.³
• The PP will have the opportunity to form a coalition government first, but a second Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez-led minority government could emerge. If the deadlock persists, fresh elections will have to be called.⁴
• Despite coinciding with the summer holidays of many Spaniards, voter turnout was four points higher than in 2019, at 70.40%. PM Sánchez surprisingly called this snap election in May, after the left suffered a heavy defeat in local elections.⁵
• Traffic on the roads leading into the country's major cities was significant on polling day, suggesting many voters waited until the last minute to return from holiday destinations and cast their votes.⁶

Sources: ¹EL PAÍS English, ²BBC News, ³Reuters, ⁴The Telegraph, ⁵CNN, and ⁶POLITICO.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by The Guardian. Spaniards have sent a resounding message to neofascist groups at home and across the continent by denying Vox's xenophobic members, and their conservative allies of the Popular Party, a majority in parliament. Though this battle is won the war isn't over, and it will take all of the centrists and progressives to fight this threatening trend and promote social and economic policies to improve living standards.
• Right narrative, as provided by European Conservative. Whether deliberately or honestly, the mainstream English-language media has misrepresented nationalist movements — whose popularity is on the rise across Europe — by depicting them as evil fascists assaulting minorities. In fact, they are center-right by US standards. All the parties in this Spanish bloc are doing is advocating common sense and cultural self-defense in a world being shaken up by globalism.

Predictions