Spain: Socialists Beat Pro-Independence Parties in Catalonia Election

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Facts

• Catalonia's pro-union Socialist Party, under the leadership of Salvador Illa, emerged with a 42-seat plurality in Sunday's regional election — marking its first-ever victory in both votes and seats.¹
• With almost all votes counted, the pro-independence parties Junts and ERC came in second and third respectively, with 35 and 20 seats. Meanwhile, the pro-union, center-right People's Party won 15 seats.²
• This comes as a blow to the Catalan independence movement, whose four competing separatist parties netted just 61 seats and lost their decade-long majority in the 135-member regional parliament.³
• Catalonia's outgoing president and leader of the ERC, Pere Aragonès, announced Monday that he'd quit politics after his party lost support as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has adopted a policy of reconciliation to ease tensions after the region declared independence in 2017.⁴
• Central issues in the campaign included the region's drought and housing crisis, as well as its relationship with the rest of Spain. Illa has praised policies implemented by Sánchez in Catalonia, crediting them for the win.⁵
• Earlier this year, Madrid agreed to pass an amnesty bill that would pardon separatists behind the secession bid seven years ago, including Junts' Carles Puigdemont. Both Junts and ERC are currently backing the national government.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²POLITICO, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴Reuters, ⁵BBC News and ⁶The Telegraph.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by New York Times. Spain's socialist government has ushered in a new era of relations between Catalonia and the rest of Spain, with these election results being proof-positive that the pragmatic and diplomatic approach of Sánchez is the soundest. By meeting the Catalonians in the middle, nationalist fervor in the region has declined, as Madrid for once proves to be a receptive ear for their concerns — even in the face of condemnation of their brave amnesty law.
• Right narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). Socialists may have won the battle, but they will shortly lose the war as a coalition government in Catalonia seems to be possible only with the support of at least one secessionist party. Discontent with their appeasement policy towards Catalonian separatists, particularly with the controversial amnesty bill, can only aggravate such a scenario. Furthermore, if Junts feels marginalized in its own political stronghold, it's likely to punish the central coalition government.
• Narrative C, as provided by Catalannews. The Catalonian dream of independence has not died — especially as this outcome is all too similar to that of the national elections that allowed Sánchez to secure another term despite the conservative People's Party emerging as the seat leaders. As Illa faces an uphill battle to secure a majority, it's clear that Puigdemont is best placed to form a larger and more coherent government for Catalonia.

Predictions