Spain: Conservative Opposition Retains Majority in Galicia

Facts

• Spain’s conservative People’s Party (PP) managed to preserve its outright majority in the northwest Galicia's regional election on Sunday, frustrating hopes from Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez that an improved economic performance would boost his party's performance.¹
• The right-wing party, which has held an absolute majority in the 75-member Galician Parliament uninterruptedly since 2009, won 40 seats, trailed by the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), which won 25 seats, and the Socialist Party with nine.²
• The Socialists lost five seats — as their votes shed to the BNG — and both the right-wing populist Vox and the left-wing Unite coalition failed to win a single seat. The outcome has strengthened the position of conservative leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, though his party lost two seats.³
• Days before the vote, Feijóo announced he might support a conditional pardon for Catalonia's Carles Puigdemont over his role in a failed independence push in 2017, despite repeatedly claiming the offer for amnesty over Catalan separatism risked humiliating Spain.⁴
• This was the first election to be held in Spain since the PP finished first in a national poll in July but failed to form a government. Meanwhile, negotiations over the amnesty to Catalan separatists have stalled for months as even prominent Socialist figures have opposed it.⁵
• Galicia has historically been a stronghold for conservatives since its administrative devolution in 1981, with the People's Party only failing to secure an absolute majority once since its foundation in 1989 (by one seat in 2005).⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Euronews, ³Guardian, ⁴France 24, ⁵Bloomberg and ⁶Europe Elects.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by Europeanconservative. This overwhelming victory sends a clear message to the ruling Socialists that Spaniards will not be bullied or pushed around, marking just the first ripple in a massive wave that will unseat the party in response to its unconstitutional amnesty for Catalan separatists. However, it's concerning to note that their self-destruction will empower the most radical separatist elements in the country.
• Left narrative, as provided by Catalannews. Despite the prevailing narratives, the Socialists did not perform poorly in Galicia due to the amnesty to Catalan separatists, as Feijóo himself had expressed support for that move. Winning in conservative Galicia was always going to be an uphill battle and the emergence of the BNG made it harder for the Socialists to secure seats. The election wasn’t great for the party, but the media needs to stop misrepresenting the cause of the results.

Predictions