South Korea Claims Kim Jong Un's Daughter Likely to Succeed Him

Facts

• The nominee to lead South Korea's spy agency, Cho Tae-yong, said on Thursday in a parliamentary report for his confirmation hearing that Kim Ju Ae is seen as the most likely successor to her father, Kim Jong Un. This is attributed to her public activities and how state media has called her.¹
• This comes as the Korea Herald reported on Wednesday that the National Intelligence Service had departed in its latest assessment from an understanding that Kim's daughter was unlikely the next in line to power. Last month, the Unification Ministry had already recognized that Ju Ae could be the heir apparent.²
• However, the agency still leaves 'all possibilities' open in Pyongyang's succession plan as Kim Jong Un, who turns 40 on Monday, apparently has no health problems. It stated that several additional variables could influence the process without providing any further details.³
• Believed to be the second oldest child of the North Korean leader, the approximately 10-year-old girl who is now being referred to as 'respected' — an adjective reserved for the country's most revered — was first introduced to the public in late 2022 and has since attended missile tests and military parades with her father.⁴
• On Thursday, the North's official state media published photos of Kim Jong Un and his daughter wearing matching black outfits as they toured a missile production plant. Her sudden ascension has fueled claims that the North Korean leader no longer is dependent on his once-powerful sister, Kim Yo-jong.⁵
• The Kim family has ruled the country for three generations, with Kim Jong Un taking office in 2011 following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, who had succeeded his father, and North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung, in 1994.⁶

Sources: ¹Yonhap News Agency, ²Korea Herald, ³New York Times, ⁴BBC News, ⁵New York Post and ⁶Guardian.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by CNA. There are plenty of indications that Kim Jong Un is indeed preparing his daughter as the heir apparent in a long-term effort to prevent a turbulent succession in North Korea. The recent electoral reform, her public appearances at a very young age, and honorific references to her show that he is seeking to prepare the heavily patriarchal and conservative nation to legitimize her succession.
• Narrative B, as provided by South China Morning Post. Despite Kim Ju-ae being constantly in the public eye nowadays, this doesn't mean that she will necessarily succeed Kim Jong Un. Given the male-centered power structure in the country, North Korean high-ranking officials would feel uncomfortable about a female leader. It's likely that she's just playing a pacemaker role for a so-far unknown male successor while softening the atmosphere around her father.

Predictions