South China Sea: Maritime Tensions Rise Between PRC, Philippines

Facts

• A Philippine boat and a Chinese ship collided on Sunday in the disputed South China Sea near Second Thomas Shoal — a day after Manila accused Beijing of using water cannons to block three of its vessels. ¹
• The three incidents with water cannons Saturday took place near Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by the Philippines but occupied by the PRC. In two separate incidents earlier this year, the Philippines also accused China of using water cannons near Second Thomas Shoal. ²
• According to the Chinese Coast Guard, the Philippine vessels on Saturday had "illegally intruded" and it had just taken "control measures" in its offshore waters, citing legal authority. ³
• The Philippines alleged that Chinese ships had fired water cannons and rammed into its resupply vessels and a coast guard ship. The Philippines alleges that one ship suffered significant damage to its engine. ⁴
• Meanwhile, the US has condemned what it characterized as the PRC's "illegal and irresponsible actions," which the US ambassador to Manila claims "undermines regional stability in defiance of a free and open Indo-Pacific." ⁵

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²South China Morning Post, ³CNN, ⁴Reuters, and ⁵ITV News.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. The Philippines' maritime territorial rights are recognized by almost the entire world — except China. The PRC must know that the world is watching and find a peaceful solution to the dispute. Beijing must follow the norms of the rules-based international order and respect maritime security in the South China Sea.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Xinhua. Even Western historians have long acknowledged China's historic activity in the South China Sea. China's claims to sovereignty over territories in the region are based on these historical facts — something even Japanese official maps have often shown. Therefore, the Philippines' raising of disputes over this and its aggressive actions are groundless and will be strongly confronted. Western hegemony is creating instability in the region.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 15% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.