South Carolina GOP Primary: Trump Defeats Haley

Facts

• Former Pres. Donald Trump on Saturday won the Republican primary in South Carolina with 59.8% of the vote, beating former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who captured 39.5% of the vote.¹
• Trump went into the South Carolina primary with the endorsement of nearly every statewide elected GOP official and has now solidified his position as the party's likely nominee.²
• Previously, Trump scored victories in the first three major nominating contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada — meaning he's most likely headed to a rematch of the 2020 election against Democratic Pres. Joe Biden.³
• Despite not having a clear path to overtake the former president, Haley said after the South Carolina primary that she would stay in the race at least until March 5 — Super Tuesday as it's known — because voters, she said, 'have the right to a real choice.'⁴
• Haley's campaign announced it raised $1M after the South Carolina loss, but Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — announced it would be redirecting its resources from Haley's presidential run to US Senate and House races.⁵
• Having swept all the major GOP contests this campaign season, Trump, facing four indictments — including two related to his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election — in his victory speech said he's 'never seen the Republican Party so unified as it is right now.'⁶

Sources: ¹NPR Online News, ²POLITICO, ³WSJ.com, ⁴Reuters.com, ⁵Associated Press and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Townhall. Haley's communications team can put all the positive spin it wants on her massive defeats, but the writing is on the wall, and Trump is the inevitable GOP nominee. She hasn't won anything this campaign season, so there's no reason to believe she'd be able to defeat Biden. She should accept Trump's victory and get behind him so the party can be unified for the general election.
• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by MSNBC. Haley has a large following — including with independents — and a different point of view from Trump. So she should stay in this race for however long she feels is necessary to put forth her opinions and show the Republican Party that Trump is the wrong choice. Continuing to run also keeps her in line to replace Trump should something unforeseen happen to the ex-president.

Predictions