Solomon Islands Awaits Vote Count After Closely Watched Elections

Facts

• Ballot counting began in the Solomon Islands on Thursday, marking the start of a long process that will culminate with a new 50-member parliament selecting a prime minister behind closed doors.¹
• The vote held on Wednesday has been closely watched abroad due to its potential ramifications for regional security, as this is the first time citizens have been able to cast a ballot since a security pact with China was signed in 2022.²
• If re-elected, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has pledged to deepen relations with Beijing, while his main rivals have expressed concerns over Chinese influence in the archipelago.³
• Sworn in as prime minister three weeks after the 2019 elections, Sogavare switched the country's diplomatic allegiances from Taiwan to Beijing that same year without parliamentary approval.⁴
• Despite the international attention paid to the vote in the Solomon Islands, geopolitical considerations are likely to have been less crucial for its hundreds of thousands of voters than consideration of local improvements and even bribes.⁵
• While previous elections have sparked unrest, including riots and looting, and neighboring countries — Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea — have dispatched police to help with security, post-election societal disturbance seems unlikely.⁶

Sources: ¹CNA, ²Guardian, ³France 24, ⁴Associated Press, ⁵BBC News and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Voice of America. China's growing influence in the Pacific is a major threat to regional safety. If Sogavare achieves an unprecedented second term, then the archipelago will strengthen its ties with Beijing — otherwise, the nation will change its global path. Beyond geopolitics, democracy in the Solomon Islands could also be at risk if Sogavare wins.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. To counteract China's regional influence, the US may try to steal the election in the Solomon Islands through so-called democracy promotion operations. The American embassy in Honiara has, of course, denied any involvement and called accusations against it disinformation — but isn't this election a textbook example of how the US meddles in other nation's affairs?

Predictions