SKorea: Russia Likely Aided NKorea's Failed Satellite Launch

Facts

• Members of South Korea's parliamentary intelligence committee told reporters on Monday, citing assessments from the National Intelligence Service (NIS), that Russia likely assisted North Korea in its failed reconnaissance satellite launch in May.^[1]
• South Korea's spy agency briefed lawmakers that Pyongyang had used a 'liquid oxygen and petroleum engine' — which exploded minutes after lift-off — for the first time, despite no indications North Korea had developed such an engine.^[1]
• The NIS was further quoted as saying that Moscow and Pyongyang have sped up the implementation of follow-up measures. It also added that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's daughter, Ju-ae, is being prepared to succeed her father, who appears to have health issues.^[2]
• This follows reports from North Korea's state media that Kim openly discussed 'the importance and necessity' of defense ties with Russia when he received a Russian delegation earlier this month — the first known follow-up to his meeting with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin in June.^[3]
• On the sidelines of the East Asia Summit on Saturday, South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul reportedly conveyed to his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, his country's opposition to growing military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.^[4]
• The US also reiterated its concerns over their security cooperation last week, with the Treasury Department imposing sanctions on individuals and entities allegedly supporting the North's ballistic missile and space programs.^[5]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Koreatimes, ^[3]Newsweek, ^[4]Koreajoongangdaily and ^[5]Yonhap News Agency.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Project Syndicate. The Kremlin has joined forces with Pyongyang in a desperate move to continue its war of aggression against Ukraine, establishing a partnership that is unlikely to last long, but that could shake up Northeast Asia and the world. It's pressing that the West ramps up its deterrence strategy against Russia and engages diplomatically with Beijing, which is also interested in stability in the Korean Peninsula despite the actions of its junior allies.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by TASS. It's no wonder that enemies of North Korea and Russia are complaining that the countries have established a comprehensive strategic partnership, as the regional balance of power has been fundamentally changed. Moscow and Pyongyang are now bound to provide each other immediate military assistance in case of a defensive war, so potential aggressors would naturally object to such a union.

Predictions