2024 'Virtually Certain' To Be Hottest Year, Pass 1.5 Degree Threshold

Facts

• On Thursday, scientists with the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service stated that 2024 is "virtually certain" to be the Earth's hottest year in recorded history.^[1]
• This year will also be the first year that the Earth will see more than 1.5 degrees Celsius in warming, which countries agreed to keep temperature rises under as per the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.^[2]
• The EU scientists say that the planet's temperature is set to increase by at least 1.55C compared to pre-industrial times, surpassing the yearly warming record of 1.48C set last year. The increase is mostly attributable to human activity and is boosted by the Pacific Ocean's El Niño weather pattern.^[3]
• In addition to this, Copernicus says that its sea temperature measurements for October were the second hottest on record. The UN has said that the current pace of warming would lead to a 3.1C increase by the end of the century.^[4]
• These findings come one week ahead of the UN's COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan. Dr. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, said that natural disasters, such as hurricanes and recent flooding in Spain, "will get worse and they will get more frequent" without action.^[5]
• Dr. Burgess said that the rise has not yet violated the Paris Agreement, which would only occur when the 1.5C rise remains constant for a 20-year period. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that carbon emissions would need to drop 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 in order for the world to meet its climate goals.^[5]

Sources: ^[1]Forbes, ^[2]CNN, ^[3]BBC News, ^[4]Barron's and ^[5]The New York Times.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by BBC News. The climate crisis continues unabated as the Earth keeps passing thresholds that will lead to irreversible damage and threaten the future existence of life on Earth. In spite of the dire need for real global cooperation, anti-science populists have actively denied climate change, with US Pres.-elect Donald Trump threatening to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. We can no longer elect right-wing anti-climate zealots.
• Right narrative, as provided by Fraser Institute. The climate lobby is using climate change for political ends by fear-mongering and misleading the public. In fact, evidence has shown that if the world dropped everything to meet the 1.5C goal, the costs would be greater than letting it come to pass and mitigating it. Climate scientists need to focus on real, pragmatic solutions instead of using climate policy as a Trojan horse for societal and economic change.