Seoul: N.Korean Troops Arrive in Russia to Fight Ukraine

Facts

• North Korea has sent 1.5K special forces to support Russia's war against Ukraine, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) alleged on Friday.^[1]
• The NIS statement — which included satellite images and other photos it said showed the troop movements — alleged that the forces were transferred to the eastern Russian port city of Vladivostok between Oct. 8 and Oct. 13, adding that more transfers of troops are expected shortly.^[2][3]
• 'The North Korean soldiers … are expected to be deployed to the frontlines as soon as they complete their adaptation training,' the agency said, further alleging that the troops were given Russian military uniforms and weapons, as well as fake ID cards from two Siberian regions.^[4]
• While not included in the NIS statement, sources within the agency told South Korean media that they believed North Korea had decided to send a total of 12K troops that will form four brigades. Moscow has described previous allegations that it's employed North Korean troops in the war as 'fake news.'^[2][5]
• The reports came a day after Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his country's intelligence services had information that showed North Korea was preparing to send 10K troops to Russia. He warned that if a third nation entered the conflict, it would turn into a 'world war.'^[6]
• Meanwhile, as Zelenskyy continued to promote his vision of a 'victory plan' to allies — which includes NATO membership for Ukraine — he said Ukraine's survival depends on accession to NATO or having nuclear weapons. 'We are not building nuclear weapons,' he later clarified. 'What I meant is that today there is no stronger security guarantee for us besides NATO membership.'^[7]

Sources: ^[1]NBC, ^[2]Associated Press, ^[3]NIS, ^[4]Guardian, ^[5]Al Jazeera, ^[6]France 24 and ^[7]POLITICO.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. If the presence of North Korean troops on Russia's frontlines is confirmed, it would not only bring a third country into the war, it would increase the military tensions between the West and nuclear-armed North Korea. However, it's more likely that Pyongyang sent construction workers, technicians, engineers, and military intelligence officers, rather than fighters.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by The Kyiv Independent. In sending troops to fight in Ukraine, North Korea becomes directly involved in the conflict, paving the steps for another world war. This is an outrageous step that must be condemned and addressed by Western partners.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Russia has a long history of friendship and cooperation with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The recent ratification of the strategic partnership treaty between the two countries only formalizes the nations' existing relationships — including that Russia will defend the DPRK in the case of an attack on its territory and vice versa.

Predictions