Senegal: Ruling Coalition Concedes Defeat

Facts

• Senegal's ruling coalition candidate Amadou Ba has conceded defeat in the presidential election, calling opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye on Monday as early results trends indicate he clinched an outright majority to win in the first round of voting.¹
• This comes as several contenders had already congratulated Faye on his claimed victory after the initial count. Previously, Ba's campaign stated that opposition celebrations were premature and that a run-off vote would be needed "in the worst case scenario."²
• A run-off vote would be required if no candidate secures more than half of the votes. Official results are expected by Tuesday but local media has tallied the results posted outside the thousands of individual polling stations across the country.³
• The winner will succeed incumbent Pres. Macky Sall, whose second term — marred by economic hardship, unrest over the alleged persecution of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko and claims Sall sought to extend his mandate beyond the constitutional limit — ends next week.⁴
• Faye, the second-in-command for the dissolved PASTEF party, ran for president as Sonko was barred from running in elections by the Constitutional Council over a defamation conviction. Both opposition leaders were released from jail in mid-March.⁵
• Like many other countries in Africa and globally, Senegal — considered one of the most stable democracies in West Africa — is struggling with high unemployment and a cost of living crisis due to record high inflation of 15% in 2022.⁶

Sources: ¹Africa News, ²Al Jazeera, ³BBC News, ⁴RFI, ⁵Le Monde and ⁶CNN

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Democracy Now. That the Senegalese people were allowed to elect an opposition leader who was imprisoned just days before the election is an impressive surprise, especially after all attempts from Sall to cling to power beyond his constitutional term — including postponing the vote. His victory is also a triumph for the country and its democratic system.
• Narrative B, as provided by APA News. Despite the opposition spreading baseless allegations of potential electoral fraud in favor of the ruling coalition, Senegal has demonstrated once again that it remains one of the most stable countries in West Africa. Millions went to the polls peacefully, further indicating the maturity of both the Senegalese people and democracy.

Predictions