SCOTUS Majority Skeptical of South Carolina Gerrymandering Claim

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Facts

• The US Supreme Court's (SCOTUS) conservative 6-3 majority on Wednesday seemed skeptical of the idea that the South Carolina legislature drew their congressional district maps based on race rather than party affiliation. The district in question, from which the GOP-led legislature removed thousands of Black voters, includes the city and county of Charleston, which is represented by Republican US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).¹
• State lawmakers approved the map in 2022, prompting the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) to sue. A federal three-judge panel subsequently sided with the plaintiffs, ruling that the redrawing deliberately moved 30K black residents from Charleston County away from the district to reduce its black population to a 'target' of 17%.²
• Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that there was 'no direct' evidence that race had predominated in the decision-making process, no 'odd-shaped' districts were drawn and that there existed a 'wealth of political data' to justify the map. Furthermore, Justice Samuel Alito claimed the lower court relied on erroneous expert testimony, with Justice Neil Gorsuch adding that there was 'nothing suspicious.'³
• The court's three liberal justices came to opposing views, with Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson arguing that the plaintiffs aren't required to provide a 'smoking gun' for whether race was a factor, and Justice Elena Kagan claiming race can be 'more predictive of future voting behaviors' than election data.¹
• The outcome of the case, titled 'Alexander v. South Carolina NAACP,' has seen both Republican and Democrat lawmakers file briefs with the court to support their respective sides.²

Sources: ¹NBC, ²Washington Examiner and ³CNN.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by New York Times. Charleston had elected a Republican in every election since 1980 until a Democrat was able to capture a slim victory in 2018. How, then, could race not have played a role if Nancy Mace was subsequently able to win by 14 points after 62% of Black voters from the district were removed? The South Carolina GOP knows that African Americans vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party — which is why they chose to rid the district of their voting power.
• Republican narrative, as provided by The Conversation. The race-based analysis for South Carolina's map is flawed. Redrawing maps based on party affiliation is allowable, so when lawmakers conduct redistricting, they're likely to end up moving large groups of one race or the other. The Democratic Party engages in more than its fair share of this practice as well.
• Cynical narrative, as provided by Center for American Progress. Both Democrats and Republicans gerrymander massively, making American democracy far from fair. Election laws should change.