Russian Warplane Accidentally Bombed Own City

Facts

• Russian Sukhoi-34 warplane accidentally bombed the Russian city of Belgorod late on Thursday, injuring three civilians. Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov added that four cars and four apartment buildings were damaged. "Thank God there are no dead," he said.¹
• In a statement, Russia's defense ministry admitted the error, stating that the fighter jet "accidentally discharged aircraft ordnance" at 22:15 local time on Thursday.²
• Meanwhile, Russia launched 12 kamikaze drones into Ukraine overnight; Ukraine's air force said eight of them were shot down. At least one of the drones struck an infrastructure facility in the region of Vinnytsia, local officials said, causing a fire that's since been extinguished with no reports of civilian casualties.³
• Further Russian attacks were reported in the regions of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk over the past day. Officials in Donetsk said one civilian was killed and another was injured in the attacks. There were no reports of civilian casualties elsewhere.⁴
• Meanwhile, with the front lines largely stalled outside of creeping Russian gains in the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, the UK's defense ministry said "severe mud is highly likely slowing operations for both sides in the conflict," in its latest intelligence briefing. However, it added: "Surface conditions can be expected to improve in the coming weeks."⁵
• Elsewhere, after making his first visit to Kyiv since the beginning of the conflict, NATO Sec. General Jens Stoltenberg said that all of the alliance's members have agreed that Ukraine will become a member once the war is over. "When the war ends, we need to ensure that history doesn't repeat itself," Stoltenberg said.⁶

Sources: ¹The Straits Times, ²BBC News, ³UKRINFORM (a), ⁴UKRINFORM (b), ⁵Evening Standard, and ⁶Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by PBS. This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup." This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by National Security Archive. NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Predictions