Russian General Seen in Public for First Time Since Wagner Mutiny

Facts

• A photo posted online appeared to show a Russian general who had not been publicly seen since the Wagner mercenary group launched a short-lived rebellion in June.¹
• Sergei Surovikin is believed to have been close to the head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash on the outskirts of Moscow last month. Reports suggested Surovikin had foreknowledge of the mutiny attempt, but failed to notify superiors up the chain of command.²
• He was last seen publicly in a video he released hours into the mutiny — in it, he urged Prigozhin and his fighters to give up their plans. Since then, his fate remained a mystery and rumors swirled that he was arrested, though this was never officially confirmed.²
• Late last month, Russian media reported that he was fired from his role as head of the country's aerospace forces.³
• On Monday, Ksenia Sobchak, a Russian journalist, posted a picture of what appeared to be Surovikin, accompanied by a woman who resembles his wife, Anna. Alongside it, Sobchak wrote: "Gen. Sergei Surovikin is out. Alive, healthy, at home, with his family, in Moscow. Photo taken today." Another Russian journalist, Alexei Venediktov, on Monday independently made a similar report.⁴
• Meanwhile, the New York Times, citing US intelligence officials and a source close to Russia's defense ministry, said that Surovikin was released from custody a few days after Prigozhin's death on Aug. 24 — though it was unclear under what conditions. The Russian source said that the general was "technically" still an active officer in the country's armed forces, though he has no further "career prospects."⁵

Sources: ¹The Guardian, ²NBC, ³CNN, ⁴BBC News, and ⁵Meduza.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The New York Times. According to US officials, Surovikin knew in advance about Prigozhin's rebellion but failed to act or inform his higher-ups. This is the reason for his short-term imprisonment and his disappearance from public view.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Claims that Surovikin had prior knowledge of the mutiny are simply gossip and speculation, aimed at creating discord within the Russian military. His removal from his post was for unrelated reasons that remain undisclosed.

Predictions