Russian FM Signals Intent to Capture Ukraine's Second Largest City

Facts

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signalled his country's intent to capture the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in an interview with Russian media on Friday.¹
• Kharkiv, in Ukraine's north-east, is the country's second-largest city with a population of 1.3M. However, with it lying just 18 miles (30 km) from the Russian border region of Belgorod, Russian missiles take just 30 seconds to reach their targets in Kharkiv.²
• Amid Ukraine's ongoing shortages of weapons and air defense missiles, Russia has struck Kharkiv's energy infrastructure with waves of missile attacks since March 22. Currently, Kharkiv has no ability to generate or distribute electricity. Its residents are preparing for a new Russian offensive.²
• In the interview, Lavrov said that Kharkiv 'plays an important role' in Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's plans of creating a demilitarized 'sanitary' zone in Ukraine — the aim of pushing the frontlines back to the point that Russian territory is no longer in the range of Ukrainian missiles.¹
• In recent weeks, with under-manned and under-supplied Ukrainian troops under pressure, Russia has intensified its attacks, particularly in the Donetsk region where its troops have made a number of gains.³
• After capturing Avdiivka, Russian troops are en route to Chasiv Yar. If that falls, it opens a possible Russian advance towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern Donetsk region.³

Sources: ¹Understandingwar, ²Associated Press (a) and ³Associated Press (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CBS. If Ukraine got the weapons it needed, it could hold its own and puncture Putin's arrogant view that time is on his side. However, as things stand, the situation is dire and Ukraine is under serious threat. Unless the US is able to approve more weapons soon, there's a realistic chance that the country could lose on the battlefield this year.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Russia has remained approving of the prospect of negotiations and it's important to stress that these statements are not just for show. However, if serious negotiations are to take place, it's clear they cannot take place with Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He lost all trust after he unilaterally withdrew from the last round of talks. Russia needs a reliable negotiating partner to move forward.

Predictions