Russian Drones Marked 'For the Kremlin' Strike Odesa in Ukraine

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Facts

  • In a week marked by frequent attacks, Russia again launched a swarm of kamikaze drones over Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday — a day after it accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate its president in a drone attack on the Kremlin. Ukraine's air force said Russia launched up to 24 drones, 18 of which it said were shot down, including all those over Kyiv.1
  • Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials also said that 12 of 15 drones were shot down over Odesa. Those that penetrated reportedly struck the dormitories of an educational institution. A number of the drones were daubed with "for Moscow," or "for the Kremlin." There were no reports of civilian casualties.2
  • Ukraine is also believed to be responsible for another drone strike in the Russian region of Krasnodar, which struck a reservoir owned by Russian oil refinery firm Ilsky, sparking a blaze. Earlier in the day, a fire also broke out an oil depot near the Kerch Bridge which connects Crimea to Russia's Krasnodar region.3
  • In the meantime, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected allegations Ukraine was behind the attack on the Kremlin, alleging instead it was a false-flag operation to rouse Russian support at home in the face of a failing military campaign.4
  • The Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank, also alleged that Russia staged the attacks on the Kremlin, "in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization." "Several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged," they assessed.5
  • Russia's Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, alleged at a press briefing that Russia's intelligence services could not only prove that Kyiv was behind the attack, but also that Washington was involved in the planning. "It is very important to ensure that Washington understand that we know this and be aware how dangerous such direct involvement in the conflict is," he said.6
  • Peskov didn't provide evidence to support his allegation. Meanwhile, four US officials, speaking to Politico, said the Biden admin. had no foreknowledge of an impending drone attack on the Kremlin and are still confirming if and how an attack took place.7

Sources: 1Ukrainska Pravda (a), 2Ukrainska Pravda (b), 3TASS (a), 4Ukrainska Pravda (b), 5Understandingwar, 6TASS (b), and 7POLITICO.

Narratives

  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Russian intelligence services can not only prove that Kyiv was behind the terrorist attack on the Kremlin, but also that Washington was involved. Washington should proceed with caution if it continues with this inflammatory tact.
  • Pro-Ukraine Narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. Ukraine did not attack the Kremlin. Moscow plotted this cheap trick to motivate Russian society to continue supporting Putin's failed invasion. What better way to stir support for their disgraced leader than a failed assassination attempt?
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Politico. The Biden administration had no foreknowledge of the attack on the Kremlin and is still ascertaining the details around the event, including the possibility it was staged by the Kremlin.

Predictions