Russian Defense Minister Replaced With Economist in Cabinet Reshuffle

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Facts

• After Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin was sworn in for a fresh, fifth term last week, Putin's longtime ally Sergei Shoigu was replaced as defense minister on Sunday. Andrei Belousov, an economist who served as Russian deputy prime minister, will now take on the role.¹
• According to Russian law, following the inauguration of the president, all cabinet leaders must resign, enabling the newly sworn-in Russian leader — be it Putin or not — to make changes in the country's leadership.²
• While the majority of the cabinet retained their roles — including all the heads of the intelligence agencies, the head of the armed forces, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov — Shoigu was moved from the defense ministry to become Secretary of the Security Council.³
• Shoigu replaces Nikolai Patrushev, another close Putin confidant, who the Kremlin said would this week be re-appointed to a new role. In the same reshuffle, Patrushev's son, Dmitry Patrushev, was promoted from agriculture minister to deputy prime minister.⁴
• Meanwhile, explaining the appointment of an economist to the head of the defense ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia had begun to resemble the Soviet Union of the mid-1980s when a large percentage of gross domestic product was going towards military expenditure.⁵
• As a result, Peskov said, there was a need to ensure that military spending was better integrated into Russia's economy, as well as for innovation. 'The one who is more open to innovations is the one who will be victorious on the battlefield,' Peskov said.⁵

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²Associated Press, ³TASS, ⁴POLITICO and ⁵BBC News.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. Shoigu's role as defense minister was widely seen as untenable after one of his key allies was imprisoned on corruption charges and Shoigu was seen as not having done enough to root out the problem. This move allows Putin to get rid of him while allowing Shoigu to save face so he doesn't later become an issue.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. With Russia moving to a war economy, with a large percentage of gross domestic product going towards military expenditure, it's important to have an experienced economist heading the defense ministry so that national spending is streamlined — but also innovative — so that progress continues to move forward.

Predictions